LOCAL AREA TO BE ON VOLATILE EAST SIDE OF SALLY EARLY THIS WEEK; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY… Hurricane conditions may be possible along the Alabama coast Monday into Tuesday as the core of Tropical Storm (likely to be a hurricane at the time) Sally moves near or just to the southwest of our area. This means that the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida will be on the more volatile, unstable east side of the circulation center as it slows down on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for our coastal areas this evening. A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect for coastal areas as a MAJOR flash flooding event may set up due to the 10-15″ of rainfall expected near the immediate beach zones. Below are more forecast details on this Saturday evening.
7PM ADVISORY – TROPICAL STORM SALLY… The center of Tropical Storm Sally is located about 35 miles southwest of Naples, Florida this evening. Sally is moving west at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, as sampled by the Hurricane Hunters aircraft crew and local doppler radar in South Florida. Minimum central pressure is at 1004 millibars. Gradual strengthening is expected over the next 24-72 hours and Sally will probably become a hurricane on Monday.
DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY ASSESSMENT… If you missed my earlier post discussing each individual city and town in the local counties across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, be sure to check it out here.
MAJOR RAIN & FLASH FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE… I would not be surprised if the heavy rain and flash flooding threat, especially south of I-10 in local coastal counties, ends up being the most significant issue of this whole deal. Flash flooding will quickly become possible due to storms training over the same area. The greatest chance of major flash flooding issues will be in southern Baldwin and Mobile counties locally, although the high risk of flash flooding also is in place for coastal parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. 10-15 inches of rainfall in total will be possible for the immediate beach zones with 8-12 inches of rain being possible in all areas south of Interstate 10. Rain amounts farther inland will vary quite a bit with some spots picking up less than 3 inches of rain in total in places like Butler County.
TORNADO RISK MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND EVEN ON WEDNESDAY… Unfortunately, we will have a long duration risk of tropical tornadoes from Monday (perhaps as early as the morning hours), through Tuesday, and into Wednesday. Tornadoes spawned by tropical storms and hurricanes generally are short-lived and generally have shorter tracks. There can be stronger tornadoes in hurricanes but generally speaking, that is more of a rarity. Even so, if a single tropical tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. Please have a way to get urgent tornado warnings starting on Monday through Wednesday.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES… A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the entirety of Mobile and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. The Hurricane Watch officially runs from the Alabama-Florida border (at the Flora-Bama) westward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. The Hurricane Watch includes Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, all of the Mississippi coast, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the Alabama-Florida border (at the Flora-Bama) eastward to the Ochlockonee River, south of Tallahassee, FL. The Tropical Storm Watch includes all parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin counties. Tropical storm force wind gusts may happen at the local beaches in these counties.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES… Due to the high amount of rainfall expected with Tropical Storm Sally, NWS Mobile has issued a Flash Flood Watch valid for all parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. All counties in the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee are also involved in a Flash Flood Watch, including Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties.
SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY… Another round of pop-up showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms won’t be directly associated with Tropical Storm Sally, but instead associated with the prolific heat content and seabreeze.
SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… We will have a special Sunday morning edition of the RedZone Weather forecast video due to the threat of Tropical Storm Sally. I will have that posted by 7:15AM along with a highly detailed text discussion. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted overnight in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Saturday evening!