HURRICANE SALLY: HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING… Heavy rain and gusty winds continue to spread inland as of 4PM across much of south Alabama and northwest Florida as Hurricane Sally sits and spins to our south. Rain will continue to spread inland. Heavier rain is expected to begin and continue throughout the evening into the overnight hours. There is a risk of tornadoes NOW through WEDNESDAY, aka the tornado risk won’t end until the circulation center of Sally completely clears to the east or northeast of our area. Why? Because our area, or part of our local area, will remain on the eastern side of the hurricane. High winds will worsen at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and in areas south of Interstate 10, particularly in Alabama and near Pensacola.
The following information remains on point from the previous text discussion.
TORNADO WATCH TILL 6PM… Right now, all parts of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Holmes, Washington (FL), Jackson (FL), Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, and Liberty counties are involved in a Tornado Watch valid until 6PM. This will inevitably be extended into the overnight hours and possibly extended farther inland into parts of inland counties in south Alabama. Be ready for possible tornadoes in the hours ahead. Generally speaking, the higher tornado risk will be near the immediate beach zones. The Storm Prediction Center notes the tornado risk will increase this afternoon into this evening.
HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES… A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi eastward to Navarre, Florida. This Hurricane Warning includes all parts of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. Sustained hurricane force (74+ mph) winds will be possible in these zones, primarily near the immediate coast, although hurricane force wind GUSTS may happen inland in these counties as well.
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING… This has been changed since this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of our local inland counties. This means that all parts of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, Butler, Covington, Crenshaw, Geneva, Coffee, Holmes, and Washington (FL) counties are involved in the Tropical Storm Warning product. This means that sustained winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) will be possible, with wind gusts of tropical storm force being likely at times.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NEAR THE COAST… The Gulf Coast from Navarre, FL eastward to Indian Pass is also involved in a Tropical Storm Warning, meaning sustained winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) will be possible. This includes Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Sandestin, Santa Rosa Beach, Rosemary Beach, Seaside, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, and Cape San Blas.
STORM SURGE WARNING EXPANDED… Our entire local coastline is now involved in a Storm Surge Warning. This includes all of Mobile Bay, East Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Choctawhatchee Bay, in addition to all local beach areas from Destin westward to Dauphin Island. The official peak storm surge product issued by the National Hurricane Center suggests 4 to 7 feet of storm surge expected for Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach. 4 to 7 feet of storm surge is also expected in Mobile Bay, particularly on the western side of the Bay and near the Causeway. 3 to 5 feet of storm surge is expected in Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and surrounding areas. 3 to 5 feet of storm surge also will be possible in Pensacola Bay, East Bay, and Choctawhatchee Bay.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES… The primary expected issue from Hurricane Sally continues to be the extreme amounts of rainfall expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida. 6-10 inches of rain is expected in most inland areas with 10-15 inches of total rainfall being likely near the Alabama beaches and in the far western parts of northwest Florida. Accordingly, a Flash Flood Watch continues. Please do NOT drive over a water-covered roadway if you encounter one in the days ahead. We lose far too many people each year across America due to people driving into water and getting swept away.
RIVER & CREEK FLOODING ISSUES… The latest guidance from the National Weather Service in Mobile has *significantly* upped the projected water level crest levels for local rivers and creeks. Potentially historic river and creek flooding may happen later this week IF (and that remains a big if) projected rainfall levels happen as expected. A Flood Warning is now in effect for Murder Creek near Brewton and East Brewton, Burnt Corn Creek near Brewton, Conecuh River near Riverview, Conecuh River near River Falls, Big Escambia Creek at Flomaton, Escambia River near Century, Blackwater River near Baker, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Shoal River near Crestview, Tombigbee River near Leroy, Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Styx River near Elsanor, and Fish River near Silverhill.
MURDER CREEK NEAR BREWTON… MAJOR flooding is forecast, *based on projected rainfall totals*. Flood stage is 22.0 feet. The creek is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon to a crest of 33.0 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Saturday morning. This forecast crest compares to a previous crest of 32.61 ft on 03/17/1990.
BURNT CORN CREEK NEAR BREWTON… Moderate to major flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 16.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 23.1 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday afternoon.
CONECUH RIVER NEAR RIVERVIEW & EAST BREWTON… Flood stage is 27.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tomorrow evening and continue rising to a crest of 31.2 feet Friday morning. At 31.0 feet, some county roads become flooded.
BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK NEAR FLOMATON… MAJOR flooding is forecast, *based on projected rainfall totals*. Flood stage is 19.0 feet. The river will rise above flood stage Thursday morning and continue to rise to 25.4 feet late Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY… Flood stage is 17.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Wednesday morning and continue rising to a crest of 28 feet Friday morning.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed at any point this evening, overnight, or on Wednesday. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. I will have another detailed LIVE look at the overall Sally situation later this evening. Stay safe and stay dry!