HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA OVER NEXT 48 HOURS… Hurricane Sally is expected to bring 10-15″ of rain, high winds, tornadoes, and storm surge to parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next 24-48 hours. The rain that has happened (and is happening) around our coastal counties this morning is set to continue and become heavier later today. There is ongoing low-end tornado risk for basically the entirety of our local area (coastal and inland) today. The expected wind impacts from Sally will likely be greatest near the Alabama beaches, per the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. Further track and intensity forecast changes are possible in the hours ahead as Sally remains in a very poorly defined steering area in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. Storms that are caught in the middle of two competing weak steering currents are notoriously difficult to forecast, as Sally has already demonstrated multiple times. Knowing that, please be ready for more forecast changes later today! Let’s look at your Tuesday forecast details, below.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THIS MORNING… Scattered areas of rain inland will become more numerous. Rain will continue to be heavy at times in coastal areas of Alabama and northwest Florida. Tornadoes will be possible this morning. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings.
WHAT TO EXPECT – THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING… Heavy rain is expected across the entirety of our region later this evening as the core of Hurricane Sally approaches very slowly from the south. Flash flooding will probably become a concern rather quickly, first at the coast and then spreading inland. Tornadoes will continue to be possible throughout the afternoon and evening hours. High winds will begin to happen first near coastal areas of Alabama, likely spreading northward across Mobile Bay and inland areas of Mobile and Baldwin counties. High winds will also be possible near Pensacola and southern Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties later today and into the overnight hours.
RIVER & CREEK FLOOD WARNINGS… The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Warning for several local creeks and rivers as projected water levels are expected to rapidly rise due to the high rain amounts associated with Hurricane Sally. A Flood Warning is now in effect for Murder Creek at Brewton, Big Escambia Creek at Flomaton, Escambia River near Century, Blackwater River near Baker, Big Coldwater Creek near Milton, Shoal River near Crestview, Tombigbee River near Leroy, Perdido River near Barrineau Park, Styx River near Elsanor, and Fish River near Silverhill.
MURDER CREEK NEAR BREWTON… Flood stage is 22.0 feet. The creek is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon to a crest of 26.0 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Friday morning. Persimmon Street and Ann Street begin to flood at 23 feet. At 25.0 feet, water will reach to Downing Street in Brewton. Portions of Snowden Street in East Brewton will become flooded. Flooding of Highway 29 may worsen and become impassable. This forecast crest compares to a previous crest of 25.9 feet on 09/30/1998.
BIG ESCAMBIA CREEK NEAR FLOMATON… Flood stage is 19.0 feet. The river will rise above flood stage Thursday morning and continue to rise to 19.6 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday evening. At 19.0 feet, water reaches several homes on north side of Highway 31.
ESCAMBIA RIVER NEAR CENTURY… Flood stage is 17.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Wednesday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 22.1 feet Friday morning. At 23.3 feet, widespread flooding of pasture and farmland. Water begins to reach Mystic Springs Road, Worley Road, Mamer Holley Lane and River Bend Road. Approximately 5 houses become isolated in the McDavid and Molino communities. Public boat ramps at Mystic Springs and Fairground Road are submerged.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER… Flood stage is 11.0 feet. The river will rise above flood stage early Wednesday morning and continue to rise to 16.7 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon. At 16.0 feet, some residential flooding occurs downstream from Baker.
BIG COLDWATER CREEK NEAR MILTON… Flood stage is 10 feet. Moderate flooding is forecast. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Wednesday morning to a crest of 15.9 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW… Flood stage is 8.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 11.2 feet early Friday morning. At 11.0 feet, Flooding becomes a threat to the Trevor Court and Rattlesnake Bluff areas.
TOMBIGBEE RIVER NEAR LEROY… Flood stage is 24.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Thursday afternoon to a crest of 25.2 feet Thursday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday morning. At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.
PERDIDO RIVER NEAR BARRINEAU PARK… Flood stage is 13.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Wednesday evening to a crest of 14.6 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Thursday evening. At 13.0 feet, the river begins to leave its banks at the parking lot of Adventures Perdido River. Begins to threaten several permanently parked travel trailers at this level as well.
STYX RIVER NEAR ELSANOR… Flood stage is 12.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday morning to a crest of 15.1 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon. At 16.0 feet, Water begins to flood Donovan Circle in the Seminole Landing community.
FISH RIVER NEAR SILVERHILL… Flood stage is 11.0 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Wednesday morning to a crest of 13.0 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon. At 13.0 feet, homes on River Road begin to flood.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… We will go into long form live severe weather coverage if tornado warnings are needed at any point today, tonight, or on Wednesday. Until then, I will have ongoing updates in the RedZone Weather app. I will have a detailed look at the overall Sally situation around 1:30PM. Have a great Tuesday!