70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN… We will need to keep an eye on a developing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea this weekend into early next week as the National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm forming as of Wednesday evening. While we still do not have a firm grasp of where this developing storm will ultimately end up, “the model trends have been our friend” in the last 24-48 hours, suggesting the storm may potentially meander in the southern Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula for multiple days. Unfortunately, this does not really clear up the long term prognosis for the where the storm will move. There is a chance, however, that this system moves around near the Yucatan and eventually fizzles out entirely. In addition, there is a separate tropical wave located in the Atlantic Ocean that will move toward the same area (western Caribbean Sea) that has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in several days. A few forecast notes are below.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM… This tropical disturbance will have a favorable conditions for development, at least in the short term this weekend into early next week. The upper-level atmosphere above the system will feature light and variable winds, allowing the system to strengthen and not be ripped apart. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the western Caribbean are quite warm with several buoy and ship observations reporting water temps in the 86-89° range.
NO LOCAL ISSUES FROM TROPICS OVER NEXT 5 DAYS… The developing tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea will pose no imminent threat to the southeastern U.S. through the weekend. The system is expected to slow down quite a bit as it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This means that we all can enjoy the weekend peacefully without having to worry about any imminent tropical threat. IF, and that is a massive IF at this point, our area were to have any type of issue from this developing tropical disturbance, it would happen in the middle or latter half of the upcoming week. Basically, I encourage everyone to keep tabs on our posts this weekend and into early next week, but certainly don’t worry or stress about this as of now.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 50s… Most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have an overnight low on Thursday morning around 52 degrees. Clear skies are expected overnight with little to no clouds. Highs on Thursday will rebound into the mid-80s ahead of the passage of a dry cold front that will again knock high temps into the low- to mid-70s on Friday. No rain is currently in our forecast through the weekend.
SECOND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance of another, separate disturbance forming into a tropical storm once the system reaches the eastern and central Caribbean Sea in several days. From NHC: “Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the next several days where environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development over the central or western Caribbean Sea by early next week.”
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next full forecast video and longer form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. Have a nice Wednesday evening!