TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORMS; BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE 2ND TROPICAL WAVE… Tropical Storm Gamma has formed on this Friday evening in the western Caribbean Sea. Gamma is expected to move northwest toward the far eastern coast of Mexico near Cancun in the hours ahead before being pulled to the southwest into the Bay of Campeche early next week. In addition to Tropical Storm Gamma, we are also monitoring another, separate tropical wave located in the central Caribbean Sea that has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm early next week. The tropical wave (not Gamma, the one “behind it” to the west of the newly designated tropical storm) could be more problematic for the Gulf Coast as we get into the latter part of next week. That idea certainly isn’t set in stone, but that is a scenario that will be possible.
GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWEST, THEN WESTWARD… Tropical Storm Gamma has prompted a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche in Mexico. This includes areas near Cancun and Cozumel. Gamma will likely make landfall near Cancun at some point tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. After that, the center of Gamma will likely emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico and stall out for a day or so. Gamma will then likely pick up speed and move west into the Bay of Campeche. Most likely, Gamma will be a potential issue for parts of Mexico. We cannot completely rule out U.S. impacts, but there is high confidence that Gamma will remain away from the U.S. at least until Thursday of next week. Beyond that, there is ample uncertainty.
TROPICAL CONCERN #2 IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN… There is concern that a secondary tropical wave, currently moving through the central Caribbean Sea, could strengthen into a tropical storm in the next few days. This tropical wave potentially could become more problematic for the U.S. Gulf Coast as we get into the end of next week, based on current model guidance. While there is no way to know exactly where this secondary tropical wave will go, I would suggest this second tropical wave is probably the one we need to watch more diligently in the days ahead as Tropical Storm Gamma is forecast to move west. From NHC: “A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea.”
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next full long form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Saturday. Have a nice Friday evening and enjoy these cooler temperatures in progress across our region!