PTC26 EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM DELTA TONIGHT OR MONDAY… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #26, located in the west-central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica. PTC26 is expected to become Tropical Storm Delta in the hours ahead. The “potential tropical cyclone” designation allows the appropriate watches and warnings to be issued (details about the Hurricane Watch below). The official forecast for PTC26/Delta-to-be shows the system moving into the southern Gulf on Tuesday evening, followed by intensification to hurricane status by Wednesday. Potential local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from this storm may become possible Thursday, Friday, into Saturday. Folks from Houston, Texas eastward to Tallahassee, Florida, including all residents of coastal Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama, and northwest Florida should closely monitor the progress of this developing storm in the days ahead. Forecast changes are expected, but regardless of the changes, our local area will likely be on the volatile eastern flank of this storm.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PART OF CUBA; TROPICAL STORM WARNING… We now have a Hurricane Watch in effect for parts of Cuba (Pinar del Rio and Artemisa) and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be needed for parts of the northern Gulf Coast here in the U.S. tomorrow (Monday).
The discussion points from our previous live video update remain on target, listed below.
LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA MAY BE POSSIBLE… While it remains too early for any specifics, the general model consensus over the last 12-24 hours continues to suggest that potential local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida may be possible Thursday, Friday, into Saturday from what will likely be a tropical storm or hurricane. There still is a significant chance that model trends may begin to change and shift the landfall location of this storm farther east or more likely, farther west. Anytime there is a potential hurricane only 4-5 days out from our area, however, certainly warrants our attention and our concern. While there is no need for panic or a need to rush out to local stores, I would suggest now is the time to review your hurricane safety plan and know where you would go and what you would do if this storm continues to be a potential threat for our area. Complicating matters further is the fact that so many folks across our area are still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only a few weeks ago.
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IN SOUTHERN GULF NOW… Aside from this developing tropical storm, we also are tracking Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday evening. Gamma moved into the southern Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula late last night. Gamma is expected to turn to the west in the hours ahead and ultimately move west and southwest into the Bay of Campeche. At this point, clearly the bigger threat for our local area is the developing tropical disturbance (INVEST 92L) in the western Caribbean Sea. We will continue to monitor Gamma, but no direct local impacts are expected because of Gamma in the days ahead.
GAMMA INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE… Thinking back to several weeks ago, there was a huge interest in a potential Fujiwhara interaction between Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco. That never really happened as Marco faded away and Laura ended up being a powerful, category 4 hurricane that slammed into southwest Louisiana. Some model guidance does suggest that Gamma and this developing storm (likely Delta-to-be) could potentially interact with one another next week. This is more of a curiosity than anything else at this point, but the ramifications are that Gamma may act to swing Delta-to-be a bit farther west. These storms likely would not merge since they would be similar in strength during their Fujiwhara interaction, and no, these storms would not come together to form a “superstorm.” I had that question more than you would like to believe during the Laura/Marco scenario a few weeks ago. The “superstorm merger” idea is not realistic.
NEXT NAMED STORM: DELTA… We have been naming tropical storms from the Greek Alphabet over the last few weeks since we ran out of the standard English alphabetical list for the 2020 season. Subtropical Storm Alpha was the first Greek-named storm. It moved into Portugal and Spain a few weeks ago. Tropical Storm Beta developed in the Gulf of Mexico and moved into Texas before its remnants moved near and just west of our local area. Gamma is over the southern Gulf of Mexico now. The next name in the Greek Alphabet is Delta. Beyond Delta, the following names would be Epsilon and Zeta.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE: TONIGHT… I will have another detailed update on Potential Tropical Cyclone #26 later this evening followed by your next highly detailed video and longer form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a nice Sunday evening!