DELTA STRENGTHENING NEAR JAMAICA; 5-7″ OF RAINFALL EXPECTED LOCALLY… Tropical Storm Delta is strengthening this afternoon in the west-central Caribbean Sea. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. The National Hurricane Centers notes that rapid intensification of Delta will become possible over the next 24 hours, meaning the storm easily could become a hurricane very quickly. More details about the potential for rapid intensification are below. The latest projected path for Tropical Storm Delta has shifted slightly to the WEST. While this slight change is overall a good thing for our local area, we are by no means out of the woods as our area will still be on the volatile eastern side of what will likely be a landfalling significant hurricane later this week. Regardless of the exact landfall point, heavy rain and flash flooding could become issues as early as Friday as Delta flings in high amounts of Gulf moisture into our area.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – DELTA… Local impacts from what will likely be Hurricane Delta (currently a tropical storm as of Noon on Monday) are expected to begin as early as Thursday P.M. near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Friday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours, into Saturday morning are when impacts will likely be the most significant across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. All hurricane hazards will be possible on Friday into Saturday morning across our region, including the potential for high winds (especially near the coast), storm surge, tornadoes, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding and ultimately river and creek flooding. This will inevitably be different compared to Hurricane Sally that was an extremely slow-moving storm. Delta, on the other hand (and thankfully!), will be moving a lot quicker.
RAPID STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY… The National Hurricane Center notes in their latest 11AM Monday discussion for Tropical Storm Delta that rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Delta seems possible, based on the environmental factors surrounding the developing storm. From NHC: “Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid intensification index support the higher than climatological rate of intensification.”
UPDATED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AS OF MIDDAY… The cone of uncertainty extends from Lake Charles, Louisiana on the west to Alys Beach, Florida on the east. This means that the CENTER of the storm is expected to move onshore between these two points. Keep in mind that impacts will extend outward well away from the center, particularly on the eastern side (the right, front quadrant) of the storm. Our local area IS expected to be involved in this right, front quadrant, meaning impacts could be more pronounced compared to if our area was on the western side of the storm.
PLEASE START REVIEWING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN… Today is Monday, meaning we have approximately 4 days between us and this potential hurricane impact on our local area or areas just to our west. Today is the perfect time to start to review your hurricane plan. I suspect that many folks have depleted supplies after Hurricane Sally, that impacted our area only 19 days ago. This means that you should plan to have necessary supplies, medicines, and plenty of food and drinks ready JUST IN CASE we have hurricane conditions later this week. If you live in an evacuation or flood zone, be ready to heed the orders IF evacuation orders are needed for your specific area.
Review information from previous posts is outlined below.
A PERSONAL NOTE ABOUT HURRICANE SALLY… Just keeping it real, I totally understand and realize that this is the LAST thing that many of you want to hear after the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only 18 days ago. That is less than 3 weeks ago, and here we are looking at a situation where another hurricane may make a run at the northern Gulf Coast. I am tired of it, you are tired of it, we’re all tired of it. We’re tired of COVID, we’re tired of endless politics, and we’re tired of hurricane season. I get it, I promise. However, it is absolutely critical that we monitor these two tropical systems in the days ahead as unfortunately, there could be more significant impacts upcoming. The Atlantic Hurricane Season WILL end soon, but we’ve got to get through this week and this upcoming weekend before we see quieter conditions (hopefully).
GAMMA FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY… Tropical Storm Gamma is weaker as of midday Monday with maximum winds down to 45 mph. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for complete dissipation of Tropical Storm Gamma by Friday. This means that the system is now explicitly forecast to become a remnant low. Some remnant moisture from Gamma may reach our local area by Sunday, but at this time, significant impacts from Gamma are not expected. TD26/Delta is clearly the bigger issue.
MOSTLY SUNNY & WARMISH TODAY… Mostly sunny skies are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Monday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 78-81 degree range in most spots across the region. Cloud coverage will increase near the coast today as high clouds stream in from Tropical Storm Gamma in the southern Gulf.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST IN DAYS AHEAD… Rain chances have increased for the south and eastern parts of our region (near the coast, mainly) as clouds from Tropical Storm Gamma stream in from the south. Most likely we won’t have rain today, but I can’t rule out a few showers near the coast on Tuesday into Wednesday. Starting Thursday, we will begin to experience the outer rain bands of what will likely be Hurricane Delta by that point, depending on the exact future track of the storm.
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day and in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update about Tropical Storm Delta posted later this evening. Until then, many more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday afternoon!