HURRICANE DELTA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Just 24 hours ago, Delta was a tropical depression. The storm is now a strengthening hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of 9PM. More intensification is expected in the hours and the days ahead and Delta is forecast to become a major hurricane as it passes by the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cozumel. Delta is expected to approach Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida by late Thursday into Friday. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are currently in the forecast. Your Monday evening forecast notes are below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – HURRICANE DELTA… South Alabama and northwest Florida will begin to have quite a bit of rain from Hurricane Delta most likely late in the day on Thursday as the storm turns on a “fire hose of moisture” from the Gulf of Mexico. High waves will begin at local beaches on Thursday as well. The core impacts from Hurricane Delta are expected to be in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday into Saturday morning. Heavy rain at times, gusty winds, tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge will be concerns. While there very well could be isolated instances of flash flooding, projected rainfall totals from Delta are in the 5 to 7 inch range across our area. Delta will be moving MUCH faster than Sally, likely helping to mitigate the flash flooding risk somewhat. Since our local area will be on the eastern flank of the storm, tornadoes will be a concern from Thursday evening through Friday into Saturday morning. Rip currents will continue to be a threat at local beaches from now through the weekend until Delta passes.
9PM MONDAY UPDATE ON THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY… The cone of uncertainty extends from Beaumont, Texas on the west to Destin, Florida on the east. This means that the CENTER of the storm is expected to move onshore between these two points. Keep in mind that impacts will extend outward well away from the center, particularly on the eastern side (the right, front quadrant) of the storm. Our local area IS expected to be involved in this right, front quadrant, meaning impacts could be more pronounced compared to if our area was on the western side of the storm. The cone of uncertainty gradually becomes smaller as the storm approaches the area, thus we will have a better idea of the landfall point over the next 48 hours or so.
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST YUCATAN… The forecast shift in the short-term has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Rio Lagartos in Mexico. Cozumel is now also under a Hurricane Warning. This area of Mexico joins the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio with a Hurricane Warning now being in effect. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Artemisa and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The Isle of Youth is also under a Tropical Storm Warning. The Cuban province of La Habana is under a Tropical Storm Watch. A Hurricane Watch will probably be needed for a part of the U.S. Gulf Coast later tonight or on Tuesday.
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NEXT UPDATE… My next long form video and text discussion update will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Until then, we’ll have plenty more of the shorter form updates in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Monday evening!