DELTA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE; MAX. WINDS AT 115 MPH… Hurricane Delta has continued to rapidly deepen on this Tuesday morning. The storm is now a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, per the latest reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft team. Delta is probably not done strengthening just yet, and the storm could become a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel, Mexico. Confidence continues to grow in a potential Louisiana landfall, with the cone of uncertainty now extending from Beaumont, Texas on the west to Pensacola, Florida on the east. While it remains a bit too early to say for sure that our area will not have the core of Delta moving right over us, it does appear that the greatest impacts from this dangerous hurricane will happen to our west across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Even so, we still will likely have impacts locally late Friday into Saturday in the form of heavy rain, gusty winds at the coast, some coastal flooding, and the potential for isolated tornadoes. More details are below.
The following paragraphs remain on point from our morning video discussion.
HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY… A Hurricane Watch will be issued at some point today for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. I suspect a Tropical Storm Watch may be issued on the west and east sides of the Hurricane Watch, considering the wind fields of Delta will be expanding as the storm is approaching landfall later this week.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – HURRICANE DELTA… South Alabama and northwest Florida will begin to have quite a bit of rain from Hurricane Delta most likely late in the day on Thursday as the storm turns on a “fire hose of moisture” from the Gulf of Mexico. High waves will begin at local beaches on Thursday as well. The core impacts from Hurricane Delta are expected to be in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday into Saturday morning. Heavy rain at times, gusty winds, tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge will be concerns. While there very well could be isolated instances of flash flooding, projected rainfall totals from Delta are in the 5 to 7 inch range across our area. Delta will be moving MUCH faster than Sally, likely helping to mitigate the flash flooding risk somewhat. Since our local area will be on the eastern flank of the storm, tornadoes will be a concern from Thursday evening through Friday into Saturday morning. Rip currents will continue to be a threat at local beaches from now through the weekend until Delta passes.
HURRICANE DELTA TO EMERGE INTO GULF TOMORROW… The center of Hurricane Delta is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Delta could make landfall near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, just north of Cozumel tomorrow morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for that part of the Mexican coastline. Even if a landfall happens along the Yucatan coast, the center of Delta will not be over land very long at all, thus the Yucatan probably won’t weaken the storm much (if any).
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DELTA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… The center of Hurricane Delta will likely be approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. At this moment, landfall is forecast to happen either late Friday night or perhaps early Saturday morning. This means that the local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are expected to happen from 2AM to 8PM Saturday. We should be able to refine that timeframe even further once we get into Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!
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NEXT UPDATE… I will have more detailed updates posted later today and tonight. I expect our live video update to begin this evening at some point between 7:30PM and 9:30PM. Until then, we’ll have plenty more of the shorter form updates in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Tuesday!