HURRICANE DELTA LIKELY TO PASS JUST WEST OF OR OVER OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Hurricane Delta continues to increase in intensity this morning as the storm moves northwest across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is now a very high likelihood that south Alabama and northwest Florida will have impacts from Delta, most likely in the form of heavy rain, gusty winds (especially near the coast), a few tornadoes, flash flooding, and storm surge. These impacts are expected to begin perhaps as early as Friday morning with the core impacts for our local area likely happening Friday night into Saturday during the daytime hours. This represents a bit of a timing shift, with the impacts now expected to happen a bit later than previously suggested. Delta is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane later today as the center of the storm approaches Cozumel and the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. All of your Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.
HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY… A Hurricane Watch will be issued at some point today for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. I suspect a Tropical Storm Watch may be issued on the west and east sides of the Hurricane Watch, considering the wind fields of Delta will be expanding as the storm is approaching landfall later this week.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – HURRICANE DELTA… South Alabama and northwest Florida will begin to have quite a bit of rain from Hurricane Delta most likely late in the day on Thursday as the storm turns on a “fire hose of moisture” from the Gulf of Mexico. High waves will begin at local beaches on Thursday as well. The core impacts from Hurricane Delta are expected to be in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday into Saturday morning. Heavy rain at times, gusty winds, tornadoes, and dangerous storm surge will be concerns. While there very well could be isolated instances of flash flooding, projected rainfall totals from Delta are in the 5 to 7 inch range across our area. Delta will be moving MUCH faster than Sally, likely helping to mitigate the flash flooding risk somewhat. Since our local area will be on the eastern flank of the storm, tornadoes will be a concern from Thursday evening through Friday into Saturday morning. Rip currents will continue to be a threat at local beaches from now through the weekend until Delta passes.
HURRICANE DELTA TO EMERGE INTO GULF TOMORROW… The center of Hurricane Delta is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Delta could make landfall near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, just north of Cozumel tomorrow morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for that part of the Mexican coastline. Even if a landfall happens along the Yucatan coast, the center of Delta will not be over land very long at all, thus the Yucatan probably won’t weaken the storm much (if any).
LOCALLY, FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY… There have been a few showers over the last several hours across the northern Gulf of Mexico. We could have a few showers today across land areas locally, particularly in areas along, south, and east of Interstate 65. This means if you’re in Butler, Covington, Conecuh, Escambia (AL) counties, OR in northwest Florida, you have a small (but not zero) chance of rain today. We are not expecting a lot of rain today, but there could be a few isolated showers around at times.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our area on Thursday as the circulation center associated with Hurricane Delta begins to fling in lots of Gulf moisture into our region. I don’t think we’ll have an “all day washout” on Thursday, but there could be rain and storms around throughout the day, particularly in the evening hours.
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DELTA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… The center of Hurricane Delta will likely be approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. At this moment, landfall is forecast to happen either late Friday night or perhaps early Saturday morning. This means that the local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are expected to happen from 2AM to 8PM Saturday. We should be able to refine that timeframe even further once we get into Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!
GAMMA HAS DISSIPATED… The National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory on Gamma, formerly a tropical storm but now a remnant area of low pressure. The remnant circulation associated with Gamma moved southward into the Yucatan Peninsula and redevelopment is not expected. A Fujiwhara interaction between Hurricane Delta and what is left of Gamma is now NOT at all expected since Delta is a powerful hurricane and Gamma has completely dissipated. There is simply no way for a weak Gamma to influence such a strong storm like Delta. Our focus from this point forward this week will be exclusively on Hurricane Delta since Gamma is now off the board.
REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… Outside of Hurricane Delta, the remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin is quiet with no new tropical storms expected to form over the next 5 days. I am cautiously optimistic after Hurricane Delta, we will get a break from the tropics for awhile, hopefully extending to the end of the hurricane season on November 30. Typically, August, September, and October are the 3 most active months with November *generally* being much less active in the tropics. We start shifting into our secondary tornado season locally in November and December.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have more detailed updates posted later today and tonight. I expect our live video update to begin this evening at some point between 7:30PM and 9:30PM. Until then, we’ll have plenty more of the shorter form updates in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Tuesday!