HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA COAST; PROJECTED PATH FOR DELTA SHIFTS WEST… There is now very high confidence that Hurricane Delta will make landfall some time on Friday in the state of Louisiana. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a big chunk of the Louisiana coast as of 11AM Wednesday. In addition, the overall track guidance and NHC forecast has shifted WEST. While our thoughts are with our friends in Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, this is excellent news for south Alabama and northwest Florida! This means that local impacts will be *significantly* mitigated if this forecast verifies, and I expect that it will. We still are set to have rain on Friday and especially on Saturday, but most of the other impacts simply will not happen in our local area based on the latest guidance. A few Wednesday midday notes are below.
UPDATED – POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… While the center of Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Friday or early Saturday, there still could be some degree of impacts across south Alabama and northwest Florida, although under this scenario, the more significant impacts would clearly be to our west. Heavy downpours of rain will be possible at times across the region on Friday evening into Saturday. Rain amounts are generally expected to be less than 2 inches in total across the region from Delta. While the tornado risk will likely be greatest to our west, there could be a few tornadoes across southwest Alabama, extending northward into west-central Alabama, on Friday into Saturday. Minor storm surge will be a concern near Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and near the Alabama beaches. Significant storm surge is currently NOT expected in northwest Florida or the Florida Panhandle region.
STORM SURGE WATCH INCLUDES ALABAMA COAST… A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from High Island, Texas eastward to the Alabama-Florida state line at Orange Beach and Perdido Key. This includes Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne. While peak surge values of 7 to 11 feet are currently forecast for Vermilion Bay and areas near Pecan Island in Louisiana, storm surge is expected to peak around 2 to 4 feet along the Alabama beaches and Mobile Bay. There will likely be a Storm Surge Warning issued later this evening for parts of the Louisiana coast.
COULD THE CONE SHIFT BACK EAST SIGNIFICANTLY? NOT LIKELY… The overall forecast trend over the last 24-36 hours has been a westward shift in the guidance for the center of Hurricane Delta. Real forecasts are build around model *trends,* not around the crazy one model, one outlandish idea images that you often will see circulating on “Jim Bob’s Weather Page” and “Gulf Coast Hurricane Center” pages on social media. One model run means very little in the grand scheme of things. We look for trends in making a forecast. The trend with the forecast for Delta has been a consistent westward shift. While there very well could be some **slight** shifts in the models, forward speed of this storm dictates that a massive shift back to the east is very, very unlikely at this point.
11AM WEDNESDAY ADVISORY… Hurricane Delta made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula earlier this morning and is now about to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta has weakened somewhat overnight and as of the 11AM Wednesday advisory, maximum sustained winds are at 105 mph. This makes Delta a category 2 hurricane. Re-strengthening is forecast to happen later tonight and into Thursday as the storm moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Delta is currently forecast to be a major hurricane (with max. winds near 115 mph) as the center approaches the Louisiana coast on Friday. Landfall is currently expected to happen on Friday afternoon or Friday evening.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates throughout the day into this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Live video update later this evening. See you then!