3 TROPICAL AREAS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING… The National Hurricane Center is now suggesting there are 3 distinct areas of concern that all have a low-end probability (at the moment) of becoming tropical storms in the next few days. I would suggest the disturbance that our area should monitor the most diligently in the days ahead will be the one currently situated in the southern Caribbean Sea, just north of Panama. This is, unfortunately, yet another sign that we are not quite done with hurricane season just yet. There is a lot we simply do not know this evening as we are very early in the process of these developing storms. The below details outline what we do know.
DISTURBANCE #1 APPROACHING PUERTO RICO… This is the tropical wave we have been tracking for several days that has maintained the low (10-20%) probabilities of becoming a tropical storm. From NHC: “A broad area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit significant development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thursday morning, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea late Thursday into Friday, and Hispaniola Friday night into Saturday.”
DISTURBANCE #2 LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK… Model guidance has been consistent in the medium- and long-range suggesting the idea of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean and moving north or northwest. If any of these disturbances pose a risk to the Gulf of Mexico, I would suggest it would probably be this one based on the ongoing guidance. It is encouraging that MOST of the model guidance thus far has suggested this system may eventually cross Cuba and move out into the open waters of the Atlantic, however it is too early to say for sure that will be the case. We will keep you posted every step of the way in the days ahead.
DISTURBANCE #3 MAY DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC… From NHC: “A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles.”
NEXT TROPICAL NAMES… We continue to dive deeper into the Greek Alphabet for our tropical storm and hurricane names since we ran out of the standard alphabet names several weeks ago. We have already observed Subtropical Storm Alpha, Tropical Storm Beta, Tropical Storm Gamma, and Hurricane Delta. The next names in the Greek Alphabet will be Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Theta.
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I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. See you then!