90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING; RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY… We will probably see a tropical storm develop in the next few days in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center continues to put the odds of this happening at around a 90% chance. Regardless of if development happens, this likely means an increase in rain chances will happen across the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday into Thursday of the upcoming week. It is too early to know if wind impacts (and other impacts like tornadoes and storm surge) will be possible. The preliminary data shows a weaker system moving north somewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Obviously that is a huge area (half of the Gulf!) and we are unable, with the available data right now, to pinpoint a potential landfall point just yet. Regardless of where this storm ends up, it will not be an issue for our local area today, tomorrow, or on Monday. Please be sure to check back in over the next few days for the latest info.
SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY TODAY… Scattered areas of rain and storms are likely today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Not everyone will have rain before the end of the day, but there could be a few storms involved at times. Cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rain will be possible in the strongest of the storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected today. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-80s.
EPSILON ON THE WAY OUT… Hurricane Epsilon continues to quickly move northward in the open waters of the northwest Atlantic Ocean. The center of Epsilon is located about 350 miles north-northeast of Bermuda this morning as the storm continues to race into the open waters of the northern Atlantic. Epsilon will transition from a hurricane to a powerful extratropical storm in the days ahead. Direct local impacts in Alabama and Florida are not expected from Hurricane Epsilon.
The forecast notes concerning INVEST 95L from last night have not changed and remain on target this morning.
SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY MEANS VERY LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW… No one, and I genuinely mean NO one, can tell you exactly where this storm will end up OR if it will for sure consolidate and form into a tropical storm. Generally speaking, if this storm gets its act together quicker, it will be more likely to move across Cuba and then potentially into the southeastern Gulf. If this disturbance remains weak this weekend, it is more likely to meander and linger in the western Caribbean Sea before being jolted to the north later next week (Tuesday into Wednesday) potentially toward the northern Gulf Coast. Again, simply too early for ANY specifics.
BETTER GRASP OF POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS BY MONDAY… There are some limiting factors that could hinder development of this system entirely (dry air to the west that may get wrapped in to the system, a shortwave trough passing near our area that could tug the system northeast in a couple of days, etc.), but trends today have pointed to a developing tropical storm. It is expected and normal in this stage of development for a tropical cyclone to have AMPLE uncertainty about not only the future intensity of the storm, but also the future track. I imagine we will begin to get a much more firm grip of where this storm will ultimately move by Monday morning.
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS NOVEMBER 30… I can promise you I am just as ready as you are for hurricane season to come to an end. We have had an impactful, long, hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2020. We are all fatigued because of the COVID situation, storm after storm, and tons of RISK this year. I understand we are all tired of it, but please (emphasizing: PLEASE) do not let your guard down from the tropics just yet. We are certainly getting close to the end of the season, but are not quite done just yet. Please be sure to check back with me in the days ahead for the very latest information. Just like every storm so far this year, I promise we’ll get you through this one too!
NEXT NAME: ZETA… If this tropical disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Zeta which is the 6th letter in the Greek Alphabet. If more named storms happen after Zeta, they will take the names Eta, Theta, Iota, and Kappa. I have had several questions over the last few weeks about what would happen if we ran out of Greek letters for names. That simply will not happen. It is a statistical impossibility. Hurricane season will end November 30. There always is a chance for a post-season storm or two in the basin, however IF we continued to have named storms into December and January (not expected, but also not completely impossible) we would reset the naming list on January 1. Any named storms that form after January 1 would take the names from the 2021 list (Ana, Bill, Claudette, etc.)
APP… Many updates will be posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app concerning this developing tropical system. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have another detailed update later this evening, IF significant changes happen in the status of INVEST 95L. Have a nice Saturday!