HURRICANE ZETA LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY… Heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, tornadoes, and storm surge are expected on Wednesday evening into early Thursday as Zeta moves ashore most likely as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. While the official landfall point may be in southeast Louisiana, local impacts are very much still expected in south Alabama and northwest Florida as our area will be on the volatile eastern flank of the storm as it quickly moves northeast. The overall tornado risk will begin on Wednesday afternoon and evening near the coast and spread inland throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. High winds (40-55 mph) are likely on Wednesday night as the core of Zeta moves near or over our area. See all of your Tuesday forecast notes below.
SCATTERED RAIN & STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY… Rain and occasional thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon into this evening across the local area. These storms are not directly affiliated with Zeta, but they could be loud at times and produce localized areas of heavy rain. I will have radar updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app.
ZETA LANDFALL IN LA OR MS BUT IMPACTS LIKELY IN AL & NW FL… Hurricane Zeta will likely make landfall in southeast Louisiana on Wednesday evening as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Zeta will likely be feeling the effects of increasing southwesterly shear and cooler water temps on Wednesday evening ahead of landfall, but it still is likely to be a strong storm with widespread rain and impacts as it moves onshore. There still is some chance that Zeta could make landfall in Mississippi, Alabama, or even northwest Florida, but clearly the odds of a direct landfall in Louisiana are increasing. Keep in mind that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are likely to be maximized 6-12 hours AFTER the official landfall happens since Zeta will be moving northeast toward the area after landfall. The storm will be moving toward our local area from the southwest.
LOCAL ZETA IMPACTS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT… The timeframe for local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida from Zeta will happen from Noon on Wednesday to Noon on Thursday with the greatest threat being from 5PM Wednesday to 2AM Thursday.
TORNADO RISK AT THE COAST STARTS WEDNESDAY; SPREADS INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rain bands of Zeta that spread across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Wednesday. The tornado risk will continue into Thursday morning. It should be emphasized that we do NOT have a tornado risk today (Tuesday). The tornado risk will likely start first around the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline and gradually spread eastward and inland throughout the night on Wednesday night into early Thursday. Tropical tornadoes generally do not last long, but they can cause localized areas of damage and still are very serious in some cases. If we have tornado warnings at any point over the next few days, be sure to join us in our live video coverage that will remain on the air as long as the warning is in effect. redzoneweather.com/coverage outlines our tornado warning coverage commitment in great detail. The Storm Prediction Center has included basically all of our local area in their Levels 1 and 2 (out of 5) tornado risk zones.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING RISK… Heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be most likely to happen locally in parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Mobile, and Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in total will happen in these counties. While that is quite a bit of rainfall, this storm likely won’t be anything like what happened only a few weeks ago with Hurricane Sally when widespread totals of 15-25″ of rain happened. Isolated instances of flash flooding may become possible on Wednesday into Thursday where storms train over the same areas.
HIGH WINDS MOST LIKELY OVER WEST ALABAMA LOCALLY… Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the local area, but the greatest probability of sustained tropical storm force winds will happen in southwest Alabama in parts of Clarke, Monroe, Washington, and Mobile counties. These are the counties that will be closest locally to the center of Zeta, based on the latest forecast guidance. Further forecast changes may put our entire region under the threat of sustained tropical storm force winds (40-55 mph).
STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED AT OUR COASTLINE… The latest peak surge graphic from the National Hurricane Center highlights the potential for 4 to 6 feet of storm surge near Dauphin Island and points west along the Mississippi and eastern Louisiana coastline. 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is currently forecast for Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, East Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, and Navarre. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected in Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Choctawhatchee Bay, Miramar Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, and farther southeast along the Florida Panhandle coastline.
ZETA EXITS THURSDAY MORNING… The local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely come to an end on Thursday morning, meaning we should be able to give an “all clear” from Zeta impacts by 2PM at the absolute latest. I imagine the all clear will be appropriate sometime before that on Thursday in the late morning hours. There could be a few lingering areas of rain on Thursday in the afternoon and evening hours, but most of the rain will be gone by 6PM Thursday.
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY… It is great to be able to conclude this long forecast discussion by reporting we will have cooler, drier, stable air moving in for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures may drop to the 70-75 degree range. Overnight lows by Saturday morning will be in the low-50s in many spots. Certainly a nice weather weekend is ahead!
REST OF ATLANTIC BASIN IS QUIET… The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Tropical Storm Epsilon, meaning Zeta is the only storm we are tracking in the Atlantic Basin right now. No more outlined areas of concern, for now.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed LIVE video update this evening starting at some point between 7PM and 9PM. Until then, we will have plenty of rolling updates being posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Tuesday!