ETA NOW A HIGH-END CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE; UNCERTAINTY IN LONG-TERM FORECAST… Hurricane Eta has continued to rapidly intensify over the last several hours and is now a high-end, category 4 hurricane with maximum winds of 150 mph. A Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft crew is currently investigating Eta, meaning further adjustments in intensity may be needed, depending on their latest observations. Minimum central pressure is down to 927 millibars. This is a terrible situation for parts of Nicaragua and Honduras due to the extreme wind and the threat of catastrophic rainfall and flooding in the days ahead as Eta stalls out. There is concern in the long range that Eta could potentially end up being a threat to the United States, and as previously indicated, it is too early to completely rule out local impacts due to this storm. Let me be clear: Impacts from Eta are NOT expected at any point in the next 5-6 days, but we simply do not know where the storm will end up in 6-9 days. Let’s discuss what we do know this evening.
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES IN NOVEMBER ARE VERY RARE… The last (and only) time a category 5 hurricane happened in the month of November in the Atlantic Basin was the 1932 Camagüey hurricane. The storm peaked in intensity in the same area where Eta is now. The 1932 hurricane turned northeast and slammed into the Camagüey province of Cuba as a high-end, category 4 hurricane with maximum winds of 150 mph. We will see in the hours ahead if Eta becomes a category 5 hurricane, but regardless of if it is a cat. 3, 4, or 5 at landfall, impacts will be potentially extensive in parts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEAR TERM: DISASTER FOR NICARAGUA… Pray for Nicaragua and Honduras. This is going to be a potential humanitarian disaster for those two nations, not only due to the extremely high winds, but also the extremely high rain amounts that are expected to cause potentially catastrophic flooding. Mudslides are also a big problem in Central America when you get these extreme rainfall events.
ETA MOVES WEST OVER LAND IN DAYS AHEAD… The center of Hurricane Eta is expected to make landfall overnight or on Tuesday morning as a major hurricane somewhere along the northern Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Major impacts are also expected in Honduras since the center of the storm will be near and over part of that nation in the short term forecast. Unfortunately, Eta is going to stall out over Central America. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast very slowly tracks Eta to the west over land. NHC shows the system dissipating over Honduras before re-emerging over the western Caribbean Sea near Belize. NHC then ramps the system back up to tropical storm status in the western Caribbean with an eastward motion noted. This is where the forecast gets tricky.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM FORECAST… This is an incredibly complex setup for many reasons, the main reason being Eta is caught in somewhat of a classic Central American gyre. We often see these larger scale gyres (or large areas of spin) in the general vicinity of Central America set up later in the hurricane season. It will be interesting to see if Eta emerges intact with a low-level center of circulation later this week or if the storm completely dissipates and the remnants of Eta help to generate a new, separate tropical storm form in this large gyre. Regardless, NHC is suggesting a tropical storm will be in the western Caribbean Sea on Saturday and into the weekend.
ARE LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE? YES. ARE THEY LIKELY? TO BE DETERMINED… It is true that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida COULD happen because of Eta or a storm that spins off of the remnants of Eta, but we just do not have a firm grasp of how likely this is to happen. Some models, like the GFS earlier today, showed one run of a storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast. Many other models, like the ECMWF/Euro, show a storm basically hanging out in the western Caribbean south of Cuba for several days. In short, while I wish we had a nice, clean yes or no answer on if local impacts will happen, it just is not that clear yet.
WHEN WILL WE KNOW IF WE CAN RULE OUT IMPACTS? THE WEEKEND… I would suggest we will begin to have a better idea on if local impacts will be possible due to Eta (or a storm that forms from the remnants of Eta) this weekend when the storm moves over water in the western Caribbean Sea. Let’s remember, there still IS a chance Eta does not redevelop after the high terrain of Central America takes its toll on the system. More than likely, however, the storm will redevelop as is currently advertised by the latest NHC forecast. Again, Eta will not be an issue for the local area over the next 5-6 days. Beyond that, we will see. Be sure to check back with me throughout the week for the very latest.
QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT; FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF ALABAMA… Cold temperatures are expected overnight and around daybreak on Tuesday. Temperatures could be as cold as 34-35° across inland counties. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the northern two-thirds of Alabama basically north of a line from Linden to Fort Deposit to Troy to Eufaula. That includes areas just north of our northern communities like Thomasville and Greenville. This means that Birmingham, Auburn, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Huntsville, Gadsden, Troy, Alex City, and surrounding areas are all involved in the Frost Advisory.
ELECTION DAY FORECAST… Sunny skies are expected across all parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida for Election Day 2020. High temperatures will be around 70 degrees. Perfect weather day to get out and vote!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next detailed video update posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday). Have a nice evening and stay warm!
