PERFECT WEATHER FOR ELECTION DAY; TRACKING DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA… Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Election Day Tuesday. High temperatures will be around the 70 degree mark in most spots. No rain is expected today or tomorrow locally. We continue to track Hurricane Eta, which remains a powerful hurricane centered very near the northern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Eta is, unfortunately, going to be a major humanitarian issue for Central America in the days ahead, not only because of the ongoing wind impacts, but perhaps more significantly because of the potential for 2-3 FEET (yes, feet!) of rainfall in some areas. It is never a good thing to have a hurricane stalling out over land, and that is what we are seeing here. The long term prognosis for Eta remains highly uncertain. Let’s look at a few forecast details.
CHILLY START THIS MORNING; COOL TEMPS TODAY… Some spots across the interior of south Alabama are starting this morning in the 30s. We will warm into the 50s by midmorning ahead of high temperatures in the upper-60s and near 70. Plenty of sunshine is expected throughout the day.
Our forecast discussion concerning Hurricane Eta posted late last evening remains on point. Those discussion points are below.
ETA MOVES WEST OVER LAND IN DAYS AHEAD… Hurricane Eta remains a dangerous, major hurricane very near the northern Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. Major impacts are also expected in Honduras since the center of the storm will be near and over part of that nation in the short term forecast. Unfortunately, Eta is going to stall out over Central America. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast very slowly tracks Eta to the west over land. NHC shows the system dissipating over Honduras before re-emerging over the western Caribbean Sea near Belize. NHC then ramps the system back up to tropical storm status in the western Caribbean with an eastward motion noted. This is where the forecast gets tricky.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM FORECAST… This is an incredibly complex setup for many reasons, the main reason being Eta is caught in somewhat of a classic Central American gyre. We often see these larger scale gyres (or large areas of spin) in the general vicinity of Central America set up later in the hurricane season. It will be interesting to see if Eta emerges intact with a low-level center of circulation later this week or if the storm completely dissipates and the remnants of Eta help to generate a new, separate tropical storm form in this large gyre. Regardless, NHC is suggesting a tropical storm will be in the western Caribbean Sea on Saturday and into the weekend.
ARE LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE? YES. ARE THEY LIKELY? TO BE DETERMINED… It is true that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida COULD happen because of Eta or a storm that spins off of the remnants of Eta, but we just do not have a firm grasp of how likely this is to happen. Some models, like the GFS earlier today, showed one run of a storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast. Many other models, like the ECMWF/Euro, show a storm basically hanging out in the western Caribbean south of Cuba for several days. In short, while I wish we had a nice, clean yes or no answer on if local impacts will happen, it just is not that clear yet.
WHEN WILL WE KNOW IF WE CAN RULE OUT IMPACTS? THE WEEKEND… I would suggest we will begin to have a better idea on if local impacts will be possible due to Eta (or a storm that forms from the remnants of Eta) this weekend when the storm moves over water in the western Caribbean Sea. Let’s remember, there still IS a chance Eta does not redevelop after the high terrain of Central America takes its toll on the system. More than likely, however, the storm will redevelop as is currently advertised by the latest NHC forecast. Again, Eta will not be an issue for the local area over the next 5-6 days. Beyond that, we will see. Be sure to check back with me throughout the week for the very latest.
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See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
