ETA LIKELY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GULF; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE… Eta is expected to be a tropical storm in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the time we get into the early to middle part of the upcoming week. There is an increasing likelihood that Eta will be an issue for parts of the Gulf of Mexico coastline at some point in the latter part of the upcoming week (approximately one week from now). Right now, Eta remains a weak area of low pressure technically classified as a tropical depression over the high terrain of Central America. Eta will emerge over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea before moving northeast toward Cuba. The storm is expected to then turn northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Local impacts may become possible toward the end of the week for the local area or perhaps in a zone to our east. Let’s look at the details.
SHORT TERM: ETA TO MOVE NORTHEAST… The center of the circulation of Eta is currently over land in Central America (Honduras) but it is expected to gradually lift northeast and move into the western Caribbean Sea tomorrow. Strengthening likely will NOT be quick, as there is some shear involved in the forecast process that is expected to keep the system from rapidly strengthening. There will be SOME level of strengthening most likely, however, and the National Hurricane Center ramps the system up to a 50-60 mph tropical storm before the storm moves over Cuba late on Sunday.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: CAYMAN ISLANDS… A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands this evening ahead of the expected arrival of Eta in that general vicinity of the Caribbean Sea on Saturday into Sunday.
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK… Eta is expected to make a somewhat abrupt turn to the left/northwest early next week, likely on Sunday into Monday. It is unclear exactly where this turn will happen. The storm could be as far south as western Cuba or perhaps as far north as southern Florida. Eta will then move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday into Tuesday.
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST NEXT WEEK… We note that the extended term model guidance continues to show the potential for northern Gulf Coast impacts by the middle to end of next week (aka about a week from now). It cannot be stressed enough that this is very much an uncertain forecast. We will begin to get more forecast confidence most likely on Saturday. We will need to begin to assess the potential for local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the days ahead IF model trends firm up and continue.
SET UP APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed video update posted by 7:15AM on Friday (tomorrow). See you then. Have a nice Thursday evening!
