TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN… In perhaps the most unsurprising moment of 2020, the forecast for Tropical Storm Eta has become increasingly unclear on this Monday evening. There was increasingly good model agreement last night into the early part of this morning but that confidence has now completely vanished as model data has significantly diverged today. This makes the official “cone of uncertainty” from the National Hurricane Center highly uncertain and subject to significant changes over the next few days. As of the 4PM EST advisory, NHC has chosen to shift the overall cone of uncertainty a bit farther west. I would remind everyone that this is a HIGHLY uncertain forecast. Eta will be a very slow mover over the next few days as it meanders around the southern Gulf.
4PM MONDAY ADVISORY – ETA… The 4PM EST Monday advisory for Tropical Storm Eta has arrived. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Minimum central pressure as of 4PM is at 995 millibars. Eta is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 48 hours. The official NHC forecast ramps the storm up to a 70 mph tropical storm in 36 hours. There is a chance the storm ramps up to a hurricane, but weakening is expected in a few days when southwesterly shear significantly increases.
LOCAL FORECAST – WARM & INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN… Let us be clear in that no significant impacts from Eta are currently in the forecast for south Alabama and northwest Florida. It simply is too early to know exactly where the center of Eta, which will likely be decaying in 5 days, will end up. We’ll keep you posted. High temperatures in the 80s with lows in the 60s are expected over the next few days with showers and storms becoming likely late tomorrow (Tuesday) into Wednesday.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice Monday evening!