ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD: STORMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY… Rain and storms will become likely at times on Wednesday as our weather pattern becomes more active over the next few days. Before we get there, we have a nice Tuesday on tap with high temperatures slated to be in the low- to mid-70s. Strong to severe thunderstorms are unlikely locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida tomorrow, but we could have rain and general thunderstorms at times. Rain chances have increased slightly for Thanksgiving Day and for Black Friday ahead of higher rain chances slated to happen this weekend as another potentially more potent storm system moves by.
MOSTLY SUNNY & NICE ON THIS TUESDAY… Today will be one last day of “quiet weather” ahead of a more active pattern taking shape starting tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the low-70s across inland areas of south Alabama with mid-70s likely closer to the coast. Mostly sunny skies are likely throughout the day. Cloud coverage will increase tonight ahead of higher rain chances on Wednesday.
SHOWERS & STORMS ON WEDNESDAY… Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Wednesday. Heavy rain will be possible at times with cloud-to-ground lightning being a concern in the stronger storms. Widespread severe weather remains unlikely locally due to a lack of “severe weather ingredients” coming together.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR NORTH… The Storm Prediction Center includes part of north and west Alabama in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. The greatest chance of a stronger storm in Alabama will happen over northwest Alabama, including places like Hamilton, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Moulton, Fayette, Reform, Vernon, and Livingston. The main concern will be gusty winds. The overall tornado risk in those areas is very low, but it’s not exactly zero.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING DAY & BLACK FRIDAY… Rain chances have slightly increased for Thanksgiving Day and for Black Friday. While I do not expect a widespread “all day washout” event each day, there probably will be a few showers around. High temperatures will be quite mild, in the 70s each day.
RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND; SEVERE WEATHER RISK… Another storm system will approach our area this weekend, setting the stage for a round of thunderstorms. There have been some model indications that we could have a round of potentially stronger storms, but it is too early for specifics.
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center continues to keep an eye on an area of disturbed weather located in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. There remains a low-end (10-20%) chance of development in the days ahead. This system will not directly affect south Alabama or northwest Florida regardless of if formal development happens.
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a good day!