GROWING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT… The year 2020 is ending with a risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding. New Year’s Eve looks quite wet with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the main time frame for severe weather coincides directly with New Year’s Eve celebrations. 2PM Thursday to 2AM Friday looks to be the 12 hour window when severe weather seems most likely for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Please be ready for possible tornado warnings on Thursday into Thursday night. We’ve got a full rundown of what you can expect below.
NICE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY; RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Before we get to the severe weather risk on Thursday, nice conditions will prevail tomorrow into Wednesday. Sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with high temperatures near 70. Temperatures will remain above our climatological norms for this time of year on Wednesday with highs likely to be in the low-70s. Showers could become possible as early as Wednesday evening, but the severe weather risk will ramp up on Thursday.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT… Confidence in when storms will happen remains a bit lower than usual at this phase of severe weather forecasting, thus it is important that you check back in for the latest information over the next 2 days leading up to this severe weather setup. Right now, the best estimate for south Alabama and northwest Florida as to when severe storms seem most likely is from 2PM Thursday to 2AM on Friday. This is, unfortunately, squarely in the middle of New Year’s Eve festivities. Keep in mind that scattered showers are possible before and after the 12 hour severe weather time frame.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT… There will be a risk of tornadoes with this developing weather system. Tornadoes will be a potential issue in the main line of thunderstorms expected to develop and pass through our region AND potentially an issue in any discrete, isolated cells that can develop out ahead of the main line. Damaging winds could be a problem as the main line of storms moves through. Unlike our last weather system last week, this system could pose a risk of flash flooding. I will be particularly concerned if rain and storms begin “training” over the same areas. Coastal flooding may also become an issue due to a strong onshore flow that happens Thursday evening.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR NOW… The Storm Prediction Center maintains ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk valid for Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday morning. Again, to be clear, this includes everyone locally. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings later this week. Also, it is critical to help people become “weather aware.” If you’ve read this far into this post, you’re probably more “weather aware” than most people. Please pass this info along to people who may not be as “weather aware” as you.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO – SQUALL LINE… This is most likely how the severe weather setup will develop later this week. An area of low pressure will set up to our northwest across parts of Arkansas on Thursday evening. Ahead of a trailing cold front, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms (technically called a quasi-linear convective system (or QLCS) these days but better known as a squall line) will move from west to east across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida on Thursday into early Friday. One of the big questions that remains to be answered is: Will we have discrete, isolated supercell thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the main line of storms? I cannot answer that, nor can anyone at this point. That possibility seems to be “more on the table” than it was even 24 hours ago, however.
NO WINTER PRECIP OR SNOW IN SIGHT… Our weather pattern is set to be active on Thursday into early Friday ahead of nice weather this weekend. Unfortunately for the snow lovers, there is no chance of snow or mixed precipitation over the next 7 days.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!