RISK OF SEVERE STORMS GREATEST THURSDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT… Thursday evening into the overnight hours of early Friday morning will likely be the time when the potential for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts peaks across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The 12 hour window for when the severe weather risk will peak locally has been adjusted to be a bit later. The window now extends from 4PM Thursday to 4AM Friday. The main hazards on Thursday into Thursday night will be tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. This weather system will provide a good soaking for many spots across the region. Most locales will pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall in total with isolated higher amounts being possible.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT… Timing for the overall greatest risk of severe weather has trended a bit later. The greatest risk of severe storms is from 4PM Thursday to 4AM Friday. This means that much of the overnight hours of Friday could have the potential for strong to severe storms. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings BEFORE you go to sleep on Thursday night. The timing of this severe weather risk coincides with New Year’s Eve celebrations, unfortunately. Please keep tabs on this risk if you’re headed out to a celebration Thursday evening. Watches and warnings are likely at times!
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of our area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday into early Friday. Locally, this zone includes areas along and WEST of a line from Forest Home to Georgiana to Wing to Navarre. This means the following communities are involved in the Level 2 risk zone (where scattered severe storms may happen Thursday into Thursday night): Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Warrington, Perdido Key, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Whiting Field, Holt, Harold, Bay Minette, Perdido, Stockton, Stapleton, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Montrose, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Loxley, Gateswood, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Wilmer, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Chunchula, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Damascus, Riverview, Castleberry, Evergreen, Repton, Range, Owassa, Lyeffion, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Tunnel Springs, Peterman, Excel, Frisco City, Perdue Hill, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Millry, Chatom, Yarbo, Wagerville, McIntosh, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 1 RISK FARTHER EAST… Much of Covington and Butler counties are involved in the lower, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk where strong storms are not as likely to happen, but still possible. This includes places like Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Horn Hill, Carolina, Red Level, Greenville, Oaky Streak, and Chapman.
SQUALL LINE LIKELY; DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE… This is most likely how the severe weather setup will develop later this week. An area of low pressure will set up to our northwest across parts of Arkansas on Thursday evening. Ahead of a trailing cold front, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms (technically called a quasi-linear convective system (or QLCS) these days but better known as a squall line) will move from west to east across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida on Thursday into early Friday. One of the big questions that remains to be answered is: Will we have discrete, isolated supercell thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the main line of storms? I cannot answer that, nor can anyone at this point. That possibility seems to be “more on the table” than it was even 24 hours ago, however.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT… There will be a risk of tornadoes with this developing weather system. Tornadoes will be a potential issue in the main line of thunderstorms expected to develop and pass through our region AND potentially an issue in any discrete, isolated cells that can develop out ahead of the main line. Damaging winds could be a problem as the main line of storms moves through. Unlike our last weather system last week, this system could pose a risk of flash flooding. I will be particularly concerned if rain and storms begin “training” over the same areas. Coastal flooding may also become an issue due to a strong onshore flow that happens Thursday evening.
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT… The local National Weather Service is highlighting the potential for a strong onshore flow on Thursday evening that could lead to coastal flooding in low-lying areas, especially on/near Mobile Bay, but also including other bays and local shorelines.
CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY… After the passage of the cold front late Thursday or early Friday, we start the year 2021 with cooler temperatures and clearing skies on Friday morning. By the end of the day on Friday, there should be quite a few areas with full sunshine.
NICE, COOL WEEKEND AHEAD… The upcoming weekend looks quite nice! High temperatures will be in the upper-50s and near 60 with morning lows in the 30s on both Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Looking ahead to early next week, Monday will be sunny with highs in the 60s.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Be sure to check in for the latest information on this evolving severe weather risk. Have a great Tuesday evening!