RAIN AHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Rain could be heavy at times on Friday as a cold front moves across our area. Scattered showers are expected at times in the morning ahead of heavier, more consistent rain in the afternoon and evening hours. The attached image highlights the projected radar off the 3km North American Model valid at 5PM on Friday evening. Rain chances will likely peak from 2PM to 8PM. We are not expecting severe weather, thankfully. Scattered showers will continue to be possible into Saturday as well.
AN UPDATE ON NEXT WEEK… Questions are swirling this evening regarding the potential for some winter precipitation and/or snow across parts of the Deep South late next week (February 12 timeframe). Let me be clear that there are way more questions than answers at this point. Model data has, quite frankly, been all over the board. What we know right now is that under some scenarios, parts of central and north Mississippi and Alabama could (potentially!) have some snow, ice, sleet, or rain. Some of the model guidance has inconsistently indicated a potential for some wintry precipitation across the southern half of Alabama. The keyword in that last sentence is ‘inconsistently.’ There simply is not any confidence to indicate snow or mixed precip in our forecast at this point. Thus, we will advertise a chance of rain late next week and not snow, for now. It will be important to monitor ongoing guidance in the days ahead. We will bring you the latest each day in the RedZone Weather app.
CAUTION REGARDING LONGER TERM FORECASTS… After what happened earlier this week, my caution has been renewed concerning discussion of “forecasts” that show information beyond 7 days out from a given point in time. Monday evening, I posted a graphic that ended up going viral in front of approximately 150,000 folks suggesting temperatures being in the upper-10s and 20s across the inland parts of our local area valid for this upcoming Sunday night into Monday. There was good, consistent data to support that idea at the time AND I posted it within 6-7 days of the event happening. However, models then did a “complete 180” in the days that followed. We now expect temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning to be in the upper-30s and near 40 degrees – a far cry from the low-20s! This was a good example of just how quickly models can (and do!) change, even sometimes WITHIN 7 days! If you see wild, “snow forecast” images running rampant on social media in the days ahead, be weary of them until we get within 5-7 days of the event. I can attest, winter weather is one of the toughest phenomena we deal with locally. It is challenging, difficult, and will keep us scrambling for new, fresh data every, single time. Forecasts are getting better each year, no doubt, but clearly we still have a long way to go.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Friday. I hope you’ll join us for that. Have a great Thursday evening!
