FUTURE HURRICANE SEASONS MIGHT BEGIN ON MAY 15 INSTEAD OF JUNE 1… The Atlantic Hurricane Season always starts on June 1, right? That was true until the last few days when NOAA confirmed that discussions are underway that may change the official start of the hurricane season in future seasons. This year’s 2021 hurricane season will begin on June 1. The start date will not change this year. What will change, however, gives us a glimpse of when the future start date of the hurricane season may be. The National Hurricane Center announced this morning that routine Tropical Weather Outlooks will begin to be issued for the Atlantic Basin on May 15. Why the change? The last six years have seen at least one tropical or subtropical storm form before June 1 with most of those storms happening in the month of May. If the discussions over the next few months result in a change to the start of hurricane season, we will know likely early next year.
LAST SIX HURRICANE SEASONS HAVE HAD PRE-SEASON STORMS… Each of the last six hurricane seasons have featured at least one tropical or subtropical storm that formed in the month of May. Last year (2020) featured Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha. 2019 featured Tropical Storm Andrea. 2018 saw Tropical Storm Alberto move into the Florida Panhandle. Tropical Storm Arlene formed in mid-April of 2017. Alex was a hurricane in January of 2016 followed by Tropical Storm Bonnie in May-June of 2016. Ana was a tropical storm in May of 2015 that affected the Eastern Seaboard. Clearly, as of the last few years at least, the “official” start of hurricane season has not meant as much compared to the first ten years of the century.
DON’T PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN SEASONAL OUTLOOKS… Long-time viewers and readers know I consistently caution against putting terribly too much faith in the seasonal outlooks issued this far in advance of hurricane season. There ARE teleconnections and other factors that can help to give a broad overview of how hurricane season may pan out, however, any forecasts beyond 7 days out are prone to errors. One of these teleconnections is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, which refers to the sea surface temperatures near the Equator west of Ecuador in the Pacific Ocean. The NOAA forecast for the El Nino teleconnection is for “La Nina to Neutral” conditions in a few months when hurricane season begins. Without getting TOO technical, teleconnections are observed weather conditions in other parts of the world that can have broad effects on local weather conditions. Generally speaking, La Nina conditions are usually more favorable for storm development in the Atlantic Basin while El Nino conditions usually point to a more hostile environment for storms. When the ENSO phase is neutral, El Nino and La Nina conditions are not present, thus other factors can drive the intensity of the hurricane season.
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My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good evening!