TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY; LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ADDED… Wednesday will likely feature tornadoes and all severe weather hazards across portions of the Deep South. There is a chance, based on ongoing model guidance and analog data, that strong tornadoes could be a concern across certain parts of Mississippi and west Alabama, although it remains too early to nail down the specific highest risk corridor. ALL parts of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in a specific severe weather zone, meaning every, single one of us need to be ready for the potential for severe storms on Wednesday. Before we get to Wednesday, we also have multiple rounds of rain and storms ahead on Monday and on Tuesday. While severe weather is much less likely on Monday and Tuesday (compared to the “big event” on Wednesday), I cannot completely rule out an isolated stronger storm each day. This special Sunday afternoon forecast update has all the details, below.
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES… It is a gorgeous Sunday across the region with temperatures in the upper-70s, approaching the low-80s, early this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will continue over the next few hours ahead of cloud coverage increasing this evening. A few showers may happen tonight into the early morning hours of Monday (20% chance of rain through 6AM Monday). Rain chances will rise on Monday, and there could be a few thunderstorms involved by the afternoon hours. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper-70s. Widespread severe weather is not expected locally Monday, but there could be a strong storm or two over west Alabama on Monday evening. Tuesday will be quite similar with rain and storms possible throughout the day. Highs on Tuesday will be near 80 in most spots.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY… Right now, unfortunately, it remains a bit too early to give a 12 hour window for when strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. I can tell you that the daytime hours of Wednesday will be when storms are most likely to be problematic for our local area. Specifics will come into better focus regarding the time frame when tornadoes will be most likely to happen across our area.
UNCOMMON LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR WEDNESDAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of southwest Alabama into an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 17. While it is uncommon to have a Level 3 risk on the day of the severe weather potential, it is quite rare to have a risk this high in the outlook valid 3 days from now. This should underscore the potentially dangerous severe weather setup that is coming into focus for Wednesday. Long-time viewers and readers know that I intentionally refrain from using hyperbole and hype in our products. There is no need to panic, but there is an urgent need today, tomorrow, and Tuesday to make sure you have your severe weather safety plan in place and ready to take action on Wednesday when the weather will likely be active.
A NOTE ABOUT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RISK ZONES… Keep in mind that the following specific severe weather risk zones don’t mean too terribly much once storms actually develop. The higher risk zones do give us a rough idea of where strong to severe storms are MOST likely to happen. Strong tornadoes certainly can happen outside of the bounds of a highest risk zone on a given severe weather day. These zones can and WILL change somewhat before we get to Wednesday. Please be sure to check in over the next few days for more updates.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a big chunk of Alabama, the far northwestern corner of northwest Florida, nearly all of Mississippi, parts of eastern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas, and far southwestern Tennessee in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday. A Level 3 (out of 5) risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including the potential for a few intense storms that could be particularly damaging.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The following locations are included in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida: Mobile, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Creola, Wilmer, Bay Minette, Stockton, Perdido, Tensaw, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Bratt, Byrneville, Century, Flomaton, Pollard, Brewton, East Brewton, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Repton, Range, Owassa, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Forest Home, Monroeville, Tunnel Springs, Peterman, Uriah, Excel, Mexia, Frisco City, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Zimco, Coffeeville, Toddtown, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Wagerville, Vinegar Bend, Leroy, and surrounding areas. A large chunk of the state of Alabama north of our local area is also included in this Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Marion, Centreville, Prattville, Clanton, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Hoover, Calera, Aliceville, Fayette, Jasper, Double Springs, Hamilton, Russellville, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Several communities in our local area remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This zone is expected to have scattered severe storms. It should be noted that tornadoes are still possible in this zone, even though it technically is a “lower risk” zone. Locally, the following communities are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Carolina, Onycha, Horn Hill, Clearview, Gantt, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Niceville, Navarre, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Pace, Berrydale, Whiting Field, Jay, Molino, Pensacola, Perdido Key, Warrington, Gonzalez, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Summerdale, Bon Secour, Fort Morgan, Coden, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Alabama Port, and surrounding areas. Areas in north and east Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are also involved in this Level 2 risk zone: Dothan, Auburn, Opelika, Eufaula, Troy, Enterprise, Geneva, Daleville, Alexander City, Lake Martin, Gadsden, Anniston, Cullman, Huntsville, Decatur, Fort Payne, Freeport, Seaside, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Marianna, Blountstown, Bonifay, and Ponce De Leon.
HAVE YOUR TORNADO HELMET READY… It cannot be stressed enough that everyone (both children AND adults) needs some type of head protection during a tornado warning, whether that is a helmet or a makeshift helmet like a cooking pot. Emerging research continues to show that wearing a helmet during a tornado that strikes your location greatly increases your chance of survival. Why? Because the majority of fatal injuries that happen due to tornadoes happen because of blunt force trauma to the head/skull region. Thus, if we can mitigate this hazard in any way, we should. That’s where helmets and cooking pots come into the equation. Anything is better than nothing in this case. This means if you can grab a football, baseball, softball, bicycle, motorcycle, ballistics, or welding helmet and put it on, it will highly likely help you survive a tornado impact. Note this helmet deal isn’t just for children. It applies to everyone, no matter if you’re 8, 28, or 88 years old. Everyone needs a severe weather helmet. I cannot recommend them to you enough! See the full tornado preparedness post from last year here.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates discussing this severe weather potential in the days ahead. Please check back in for the very latest information over the next few days. Have a great Sunday evening!
