TORNADOES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY; LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The tornado risk across the Deep South appears to be increasing ever so slightly on Wednesday. A few Monday afternoon updates: The timing for severe storms continues to seem to be later compared to previous guidance. 3PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is now the 12 hour window when severe storms and tornadoes will be MOST likely to happen across our region. There will be plenty of instability (both at the surface-level and higher in the atmosphere) for storms to work with on Wednesday, thus leading to potentially robust, intense thunderstorms. The local National Weather Service is noting that a couple of long-track, significant tornadoes will be possible with this event. I will have another detailed update later this evening.
2PM MONDAY – RADAR CHECK… Numerous small showers are forming as of 2PM across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. These showers are drifting northeast. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, severe weather risk for inland areas today, mainly for communities along, north, and west of Interstate 65. This means that widespread severe weather is NOT expected today, but a stronger storm or two cannot completely be ruled out. The tornado risk today and Tuesday remains low, but not completely at zero for inland areas. The severe weather risk today and Tuesday are conditional, in nature, meaning that a capping inversion in the atmosphere would have to be overcome by billowing thunderstorms. That does not seem particularly likely, but that is why the low-end risk is in place. We’ll keep watching trends and have updates in the hours ahead in the RedZone Weather app.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… Ongoing model guidance continues to trend later for the arrival time for strong to severe storms in south Alabama and northwest Florida. The updated 12 hour window when severe storms seem most likely to happen is from 3PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday. There is still quite a bit of time between now and Wednesday, thus more forecast refinements are possible. Please check back in for more updates through Wednesday.
The following paragraphs from the morning post remain completely on target.
UNCOMMON LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR WEDNESDAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include parts of southwest Alabama in an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 17. While it is uncommon to have a Level 3 risk on the day of the severe weather potential, it is quite rare to have a risk this high in the outlook valid 2 days from now. This should underscore the potentially significant severe weather setup that is coming into focus for Wednesday. Long-time viewers and readers know that I intentionally refrain from using hyperbole and hype in our products. There is no need to panic, but there is an urgent need today and Tuesday to make sure you have your severe weather safety plan in place and ready to take action on Wednesday when the weather will likely be active.
A NOTE ABOUT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RISK ZONES… Keep in mind that the following specific severe weather risk zones don’t mean too terribly much once storms actually develop. The higher risk zones do give us a rough idea of where strong to severe storms are MOST likely to happen. Strong tornadoes certainly can happen outside of the bounds of a highest risk zone on a given severe weather day. These zones can and WILL change somewhat before we get to Wednesday. Please be sure to check in over the next few days for more updates.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, parts of northwest Florida, the northern two-thirds of Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday. A Level 3 (out of 5) risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including the potential for a few intense storms that could be particularly damaging.
2PM MONDAY: LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The following locations are included in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Carolina, Gantt, Straughn, Evergreen, Range, Repton, Lenox, Castleberry, Owassa, Burnt Corn, Belleville, Brooklyn, Atmore, Huxford, Poarch, Flomaton, Wawbeek, Canoe, Wallace, Appleton, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Damascus, Dixonville, Wing, Monroeville, Uriah, Excel, Frisco City, Megargal, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Old Texas, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Gainestown, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Wagerville, Deer Park, McIntosh, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Satsuma, Prichard, Creola, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Perdido, Rabun, Lottie, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, and surrounding areas. We also note that many locales across the state just outside of our local area are included: Luverne, Troy, Elba, Auburn, Montgomery, Prattville, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Talladega, Alexander City, Decatur, Gadsden, Anniston, Fayette, Centreville, Jasper, Livingston, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Hamilton, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Cullman, Oneonta, Marion, and surrounding areas.
2PM MONDAY: LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Several communities in our local area remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This zone is expected to have scattered severe storms. It should be noted that tornadoes are still possible in this zone, even though it technically is a “lower risk” zone. Locally, the following communities are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone: Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Montrose, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, and surrounding areas. Dothan, Daleville, Geneva, Abbeville, Eufaula, Phenix City, Seaside, and Freeport are also involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone.
BETTER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK… After the severe weather potential on Wednesday, a cold front will move through our region from northwest to southeast Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This cold front will usher in cooler, much drier air into our region. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low- to mid-70s. By Friday, however, most locales will have highs only in the mid-60s. Cooler, drier conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
NEXT UPDATE… I will have another detailed update on the Wednesday severe weather situation posted later this evening. Until then, plenty more updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday afternoon!
