ELEVATED TORNADO RISK FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY… Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible across much of the Deep South on Wednesday as an expansive warm sector forms ahead of an advancing cold front. While there is no way to pinpoint exactly where tornadoes will form this far in advance, model guidance has continued to be quite consistent today in pointing to a potentially significant severe weather day. In addition to the tornado threat, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid for Wednesday across much of Alabama, part of northwest Florida, and for much of Mississippi. Tuesday could also feature a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, but the risk on Tuesday (Level 1 out of 5) is lower compared to the “big event” slated for Wednesday. Join me in this special live video update for the latest information.
SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT… Most locales will have quiet weather conditions overnight, but some spots, particularly farther inland may have a few showers and thunderstorms. The overall severe weather risk tonight and into the overnight hours remains quite low, although not completely zero.
SCATTERED STORMS ON TUESDAY; LEVEL 1 RISK… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today with scattered rain and thunderstorms around. High temperatures on Tuesday will again be near the 80 degree mark in many locales across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has included a big chunk of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid for Tuesday. This indicates that widespread severe weather remains unlikely, but a strong (or even severe) storm or two cannot be completely ruled out.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… Ongoing model guidance continues to trend later for the arrival time for strong to severe storms in south Alabama and northwest Florida. The updated 12 hour window when severe storms seem most likely to happen is from 3PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday. There is still quite a bit of time between now and Wednesday, thus more forecast refinements are possible. Please check back in for more updates through Wednesday.
UNCOMMON LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR WEDNESDAY; STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include parts of southwest Alabama in an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 17. While it is uncommon to have a Level 3 risk on the day of the severe weather potential, it is quite rare to have a risk this high in the outlook valid 2 days from now. This should underscore the potentially significant severe weather setup that is coming into focus for Wednesday. Long-time viewers and readers know that I intentionally refrain from using hyperbole and hype in our products. There is no need to panic, but there is an urgent need today and Tuesday to make sure you have your severe weather safety plan in place and ready to take action on Wednesday when the weather will likely be active.
A NOTE ABOUT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RISK ZONES… Keep in mind that the following specific severe weather risk zones don’t mean too terribly much once storms actually develop. The higher risk zones do give us a rough idea of where strong to severe storms are MOST likely to happen. Strong tornadoes certainly can happen outside of the bounds of a highest risk zone on a given severe weather day. These zones can and WILL change somewhat before we get to Wednesday. Please be sure to check in over the next few days for more updates.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of Alabama, parts of northwest Florida, the northern two-thirds of Mississippi, northeast Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday. A Level 3 (out of 5) risk means that numerous severe storms will be possible, including the potential for a few intense storms that could be particularly damaging.
7:30PM MONDAY: LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK… The following locations are included in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida: Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Carolina, Gantt, Straughn, Evergreen, Range, Repton, Lenox, Castleberry, Owassa, Burnt Corn, Belleville, Brooklyn, Atmore, Huxford, Poarch, Flomaton, Wawbeek, Canoe, Wallace, Appleton, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Damascus, Dixonville, Wing, Monroeville, Uriah, Excel, Frisco City, Megargal, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Perdue Hill, Beatrice, Old Texas, Thomasville, Coffeeville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Gainestown, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Wagerville, Deer Park, McIntosh, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Satsuma, Prichard, Creola, Bay Minette, Tensaw, Stockton, Perdido, Rabun, Lottie, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Chapman, Forest Home, and surrounding areas. We also note that many locales across the state just outside of our local area are included: Luverne, Troy, Elba, Auburn, Montgomery, Prattville, Selma, Demopolis, Camden, Butler, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Talladega, Alexander City, Decatur, Gadsden, Anniston, Fayette, Centreville, Jasper, Livingston, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Hamilton, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Cullman, Oneonta, Marion, and surrounding areas.
7:30PM MONDAY: LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK… Several communities in our local area remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Wednesday. This zone is expected to have scattered severe storms. It should be noted that tornadoes are still possible in this zone, even though it technically is a “lower risk” zone. Locally, the following communities are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone: Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Montrose, Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Pace, Milton, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, and surrounding areas. Dothan, Daleville, Geneva, Abbeville, Eufaula, Phenix City, Seaside, and Freeport are also involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video will be posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Until then, more updates will be posted as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Monday evening!