SEVERE STORMS & TORNADOES LIKELY LATER TODAY… Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Deep South later today in what could be a widespread, high-impact weather event. Every single community in south Alabama and northwest Florida is involved in some type of severe weather risk. The greater tornado risk is expected to set up across inland areas of southwest Alabama, mainly in areas along, north, and west of Interstate 65. Strong, potentially long-track tornadoes will be possible. There is a chance for a few large, violent tornadoes later today across west-central Alabama and east-central Mississippi. Those areas are now involved in a very rare, Level 5 (out of 5) severe weather risk. It cannot be emphasized enough: Please HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS LATER TODAY. One round of storms is expected this afternoon into the early evening. These storms could be potentially problematic with several tornadoes possible. Round 2 of the severe weather risk happens later tonight into the early morning hours of Thursday when a more organized batch of storms moves in from the west. Damaging wind, tornadoes, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. More forecast details are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY… The timeframe for severe weather issues across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 1PM this afternoon to 5AM Thursday with the core threat being 3PM to 3AM. The first round of storms will feature an enhanced, potentially significant, tornado threat as afternoon storms that can fire up will likely be discrete and isolated in nature. The secondary round of storms happens later in the evening and will bring the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and much more in the way of rainfall. Please keep in mind there is a real chance a big chunk of our area will be without rain for much of the day. The discrete storms that can be quite problematic and produce large tornadoes are often comparatively small, thus even though it may be quite sunny and nice where you are located, there still is a significant severe weather risk in place.
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS: THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING… Supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible first in the afternoon, extending into the evening hours. The latest high-resolution model guidance continues to point to the greatest risk of tornadoes locally happening in west Alabama. This means if you are in Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, Choctaw, or Marengo counties, your specific area is probably going to be “first up” to see the tornado potential this afternoon. These are the specific cells that could produce long track, strong tornadoes.
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS: LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT… The secondary round of severe weather will consist of a line of thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of a squall line (QLCS). This line of storms may be more like a broken line of supercells that have an enhanced tornado potential compared to a typical squall line of storms. This line of storms will cross south Alabama and northwest Florida from west to east. High-res model guidance continues to show the line of strong to severe storms moving across our region from 9PM to 6AM. The main concerns in this secondary round of storms will be damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding.
LEVEL 5 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI & WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Storm Prediction Center added a very rare Level 5 (out of 5) severe weather high risk zone for much of central Mississippi, far northeastern Louisiana, far southeastern Arkansas, and west-central Alabama. We note nearly all of Alabama is covered in the Level 3 and 4 risk zones, which are also very significant and uncommon. For a detailed rundown on the convective outlook specifics, see my post from earlier this morning here.
RAIN & STORMS CLEAR OUT TOMORROW MORNING… The main batch of showers and thunderstorms will clear out to our east by 9AM Thursday morning. Clouds will linger through the early afternoon hours in many areas. I expect clearing skies by the early evening hours of Thursday ahead of clear skies on Thursday night into Friday. Highs on Thursday will be in the low-70s.
MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY… The weekend looks fantastic! High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the mid-40s. Mostly sunny skies are expected each day.
DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK… Mostly sunny skies will continue on Monday ahead of increasing cloudiness on Tuesday. Rain and storms will come back into our forecast by Wednesday of the upcoming week, although it remains far too early to know if severe weather will be a possibility.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have many updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. If or when a tornado warning is issued for our local area, we will start our uninterrupted, live video coverage to bring you the latest information.
Have a good Wednesday and please stay safe!
