MORE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TODAY; SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY… Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be concerns on this Wednesday ahead of a potentially significant tornado event setting up for tomorrow (Thursday) across areas to our north in parts of north Mississippi and north Alabama. The greatest tornado risk will likely be just to our north and west in parts of central Mississippi, west-central Alabama, and northwest Alabama. These are the zones involved in the Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone valid for tomorrow. Vast majority of our local area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible, including a tornado or two. Rain and storms will likely persist into the upcoming weekend. Your full Wednesday morning forecast details are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT – TODAY… Heavy rain will be possible at times. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms, some of which may briefly ramp up to strong levels. The main concerns in the storms today will be heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, and perhaps gusty winds in the strongest of the storms. High temperatures on this Wednesday will be in the low-70s.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center maintains parts of far western Alabama and much of Mississippi in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. This is in place mainly because of a very low end potential of a few storms ramping up and producing gusty winds. The overall tornado risk today locally remains quite low.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES… Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be concerns across the entire region today. If you encounter a water-covered roadway, please do not try to drive over it! We lose far too many people across America each year due to people trying to drive across water-covered roadways and being swept away. Talk about a bad situation! Several communities in the Flash Flood Watch could pick up 5 to 7 inches of rainfall over the next several days and flash flooding will be a concern through at least Friday. The following local counties are involved in the Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning: Choctaw, Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Mobile, and Baldwin.
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY, MAINLY TO OUR NORTH… Severe thunderstorms will become possible tomorrow (Thursday, March 25) across much of the Deep South. Although tornadoes cannot be ruled out anywhere across the region tomorrow, there is a zone in northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama that has a specifically enhanced tornado threat. See more about the convective outlook risk zones below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY… In addition to being in a lower risk zone across the board in our local area compared to last evening, there is more good news to report. It looks like the threat of severe storms locally will exist predominantly in the daytime hours instead of overnight. Noon on Thursday to 8PM will be the 8 hour window when strong to severe storms, including a tornado or two, may happen in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible at times Thursday evening into the overnight hours of early Friday morning.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SIGNIFICANT RISK… The greatest risk of strong tornadoes is expected to happen farther inland across parts of central and northwest Alabama on Thursday. None of south Alabama or northwest Florida are currently involved in the higher Level 4 risk as of 7AM Wednesday. The Level 4, significant risk zone is in place for the following places: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, Cullman, Hamilton, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Aliceville, Gordo, Reform, Livingston, York, Eutaw, Forkland, Demopolis, Russellville, Moulton, Athens, Ardmore, and surrounding areas in northwest Alabama. Jackson (MS), Tupelo, Columbus (MS), Starkville, Oxford (MS), and Memphis (TN) are also involved in the Level 4 risk zone.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… The Level 3 risk zone now includes many places in northeast Alabama and extends southward into the far northern part of our local area. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe storms, including tornadoes, will be possible. The following communities locally are involved in the Level 3 risk: Thomasville, Campbell, Silas, Toxey, Butler, and Sweet Water in west Alabama. The Level 3 risk also includes Linden, Selma, Clanton, Calera, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, Fort Payne, Boaz, Centre, Mt. Cheaha, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Farther south in our local area, a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place for many communities. This is the zone where scattered severe storms may happen, potentially including a tornado or two. This Level 2 risk includes: Mobile, Prichard, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Saraland, Coden, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Loxley, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Tensaw, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Poarch, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Jay, Molino, Andalusia, Red Level, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Perdue Hill, Frisco City, Excel, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Coffeeville, Millry, Chatom, Yarbo, Deer Park, McIntosh, Wagerville, Leroy, and surrounding areas. We also note that Montgomery, Auburn, Alexander City, Troy, Luverne, Hayneville, Prattville, Wetumpka, Tuskegee, Valley, Lanett, and Roanoke are involved in the Level 2 risk.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) LOW-END RISK… If you are in the following communities, the severe weather risk on Thursday is now much more marginal and low risk. There is still a very small chance for a tornado or damaging winds, but confidence is now higher that these communities probably will just have some rain at times: Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Florala, Opp, Destin, Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Baker, Mary Esther, Laurel Hill, Elba, Enterprise, Geneva, Daleville, Eufaula, and Phenix City.
UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND… Rain and general thunderstorms will continue across much of our area on Friday into Saturday and Sunday as well. High temperatures will be around 80 degrees each day with morning lows in the low-60s. We finally get an end to the rain and storms on Sunday evening as a cold front moves across our area, ushering in much cooler, much drier air.
SUNSHINE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK… After days of rain and storms, it will certainly be nice to see a good bit of sunshine returning to our local forecast early next week. High temperatures will be in the low-70s on Monday but temperatures will quickly rebound to around 80 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming week.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another detailed update later this evening with plenty of shorter updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Wednesday!
