SATURDAY STORMS MAY BE MOST SEVERE IN MORNING HOURS… Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings Friday night into Saturday as we have a potential severe weather event ahead, including some risk of tornadoes. Saturday morning is when “severe weather ingredients” will be most in sync across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. By the afternoon and evening hours, these atmospheric ingredients are expected to be more out of phase, with the better dynamics being farther northeast and better thermodynamic instability being farther south. Rain (potentially being heavy rain) and thunderstorms will continue to be possible at times Saturday afternoon and evening. In addition to the tornado risk, there also will be a risk of damaging straight line winds and large hail in the stronger storms. As always, be sure to join me if a tornado warning is required for any part of our local area in south Alabama or northwest Florida. A few more Thursday evening forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY… Timing for this severe weather setup has changed somewhat. The morning round of thunderstorms is expected to be the round when storms may be at their peak in terms of intensity. Scattered storms may be severe as early as 2AM across parts of southwest Alabama. The main timeframe for severe storms will be from 4AM to 9AM. The better dynamics of this weather system will be moving out to the northeast, away from the higher surface-based instability values in the late morning hours. Thus, stronger storms may happen in the late morning, afternoon, and evening hours of Saturday, but the risk seems to be a bit lower. I expect heavy rain at times throughout the day with the severe weather risk being maximized in the morning hours.
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS LIKELY MAXIMIZED INLAND… Make no mistake that the entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has a severe weather risk late Friday night into Saturday, however, it appears the overall tornado risk may be slightly higher farther inland compared to communities closer to the coast. This means that Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Covington, Butler, Clarke, and Washington counties may have a slightly higher risk of severe storms compared to counties closer to the coast. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings, regardless of if you’re farther inland or closer to our local beaches.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, all of northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle region, southeast Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and much of Georgia and South Carolina in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Saturday. This includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, including all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. A Level 2 risk means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible, including a tornado potential in this case.
TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY… Rain moves out late Saturday evening, giving way to a nice Sunday with clearing skies in the morning hours. High temperatures on Sunday will be near 80 in most spots. Sunshine will be in place across the region by the afternoon and evening hours. More sunshine is ahead for Monday as well.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Friday. Until then, more updates will be posted in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Thursday evening!