WEAKENED FRED MOVING NORTHWEST; LIKELY IMPACTS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY… Tropical Depression Fred is a weakened, disrupted system this morning that continues to move northwest. The island of Hispaniola really took a toll on the inner core of the system. Fred will likely move into the southeastern Gulf near the Florida Keys on Saturday morning before arriving in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region on Sunday evening into Monday. Right now, it appears significant impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will not happen, based on the current projections. Please know that more forecast changes are possible in the days ahead, however. Locally, showers and thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s. More Thursday morning forecast details are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT – FRED… Based on the latest cone of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center as of 7AM Thursday, impacts from Fred remain possible, but unlikely. For now, most of the model guidance shows the center of Fred passing to our east, meaning our area would be on the western side of the storm, largely mitigating any major impacts if that scenario happens. Further forecast adjustments may be possible in the days ahead.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION TO THE BEACH? NO… Since so much forecast variability remains in the ultimate future track of Tropical Storm Fred, I do not advise anyone to cancel any vacation plans along the Alabama or northwest Florida beaches yet. Why? Because most scenarios point to the core of Fred passing to the east of our local area at this time. Could future forecasts put our area in more of a risk zone to see a greater amount of impacts? Yes. That’s why it is important to stay tuned for the latest information over the next few days.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING P.M. HOURS TODAY… Prolific moisture in the atmosphere will help to spark off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Thursday. As always this time of year, the greatest chance of these pop-up thunderstorms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. Torrential downpours of rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and loud thunder will be possible in the stronger storms. No tornado risk locally today.
INVEST 95L IN ATLANTIC MAY DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL STORM SOON… A tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean, currently branded as INVEST 95L, is moving west at 15 to 20 mph. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50-60% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. Far too early to speculate where this system will ultimately end up, but the encouraging news is that most of the major weather models do not ramp the system up to hurricane status anytime soon. We note that 95L may be in a very similar location to Fred in a few days.
FRED TO BE NEAR FLORIDA KEYS BY SATURDAY… Forecast confidence is fairly high that the center of Fred will likely be near the Florida Keys and South Florida by Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be needed for the Keys and parts of the western coast of Florida as early as today. Interests in the Florida Keys, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, the Everglades, and Ft. Myers should closely monitor the progress of Fred over the next few days.
FRED HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO STALL; NOT A SALLY REPEAT… One bit of continued forecast confidence this morning is that Fred is NOT expected to stall out or slow down. The steering currents driving Fred are a subtropical ridge of high pressure to the north over the Atlantic Ocean and a weakening upper-level low pressure area moving into the Gulf. Fred will be a rainmaker, but probably won’t be a major flooding event for many (if any) areas. Fred exists in a totally different environment than what happened last year with Hurricane Sally. The system will be a quick mover, most likely.
APP… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice day!
