PROJECTED PATH FOR FRED AGAIN SHIFTS WEST; LOCAL IMPACTS LIKELY MONDAY… The 10PM Friday advisory for Tropical Depression Fred has again shifted the cone of uncertainty a bit farther west. The cone of uncertainty now extends from Biloxi, MS on the west to Apalachicola, FL on the east with a likely landfall point somewhere near Navarre or Fort Walton Beach, FL. The reason for this continued westward shift in the forecast cone is because the ill-defined low-level center of Fred continues to move west over Cuba this evening. The National Hurricane Center notes that more westward shifting of the forecast may be possible, thus putting much of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida in the zone where impacts will be possible on Monday.
As of 10PM Friday, NHC forecasts a 60 mph tropical storm making landfall somewhere along the northwest Florida coast. Is there a chance Fred could be a hurricane at landfall? Yes, there is a small (10%) chance. On the other extreme, there is a 30% chance Fred could be a tropical depression or weak, broad area of low pressure at landfall. Most scenarios (60% chance) point to Fred being a tropical storm at landfall on Monday, however.
I will have a fresh look at the forecast situation posted by 7:00AM tomorrow (Saturday) morning. Have a nice overnight!
