FRED TO MOVE INTO GULF TOMORROW; P.M. STORMS TODAY & THIS WEEKEND… Forecast confidence continues to increase suggesting Fred, the tropical system we have been tracking over the last few days, will pass to the east of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday night into Monday. This morning, Fred is a bit more organized than it was 24 hours ago. The center of the system is located near the northern coastline of Cuba just south of The Bahamas in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Locally, more pop-up thunderstorms are expected to fire up this afternoon into this evening bringing localized downpours of heavy rain to our area. A few more Friday morning forecast notes are below.
FRED MOVES NORTH THIS WEEKEND… A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys and parts of the South Florida coast on the Gulf side ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Fred. The center of Fred is expected to pass very near or directly over the Florida Keys tomorrow morning before moving northwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. While the center of Fred is expected to basically parallel the coast as it moves north, much of the rain and gusty winds associated with Fred will be displaced from the center. This means the weekend in the Florida Peninsula will be quite wet with numerous showers and thunderstorms.
LANDFALL OF FRED LIKELY IN FLORIDA PANHANDLE… The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast a landfall of Fred in the Florida Panhandle, likely near Apalachicola, Carrabelle, or St. Marks. If this track happens, that would mean our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida would be on the drier, calmer western side of the storm. There is a high chance no significant impacts happen locally because of Fred.
HIGH CHANCE INVEST 95L BECOMES TROPICAL STORM… In addition to Fred in the southwestern Atlantic near the Cuban coast, we are also watching a separate tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean associated with a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a 70-80% chance of this system developing into a tropical storm over the next few days as westward movement continues.
STORMS LIKELY TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON… If it feels like our local weather pattern has “been on repeat” over the last few days (and really the last several weeks!), that would be accurate. Today will be another day with scattered P.M. thunderstorms. Some of the showers and storms may develop as early as later this morning. Rain could be heavy at times this afternoon into this evening in localized areas. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern in the stronger storms.
MORE P.M. STORMS THIS WEEKEND… No real changes to the local forecast are expected this weekend with more in the way of scattered to numerous P.M. thunderstorms ahead. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s with morning lows in the low-70s.
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See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!
