FRED LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN; LANDFALL LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT… Fred weakened to a remnant area of low pressure this morning but the system is expected to become a tropical storm again over the next 24 hours. The cone of uncertainty continues to shift west. The cone now extends from Venice, LA on the west to Fort Walton Beach, FL on the east with a likely landfall point near Dauphin Island some time late Monday or early Tuesday. This means that our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will have the potential for tropical impacts Monday into Tuesday, including a risk of tornadoes, gusty winds at the immediate coast (no significant wind impacts inland), minor storm surge and coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and high waves, and the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding across the entire area. Please keep in mind the “cone of uncertainty” represents where the center point of Fred is expected to go. MOST of the impacts with this storm will happen on the eastern side of the storm, and unfortunately, that is squarely in south Alabama and northwest Florida at this point.
COULD FRED BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL? There is a very high chance (>90%) chance Fred is NOT a hurricane at landfall in a few days. The upper-level atmospheric pattern across the northern Gulf is expected to be fairly hostile, with Fred likely encountering plenty of shear across the Gulf. Most likely, Fred will be a tropical storm at landfall, although there are some models that show the system remaining weak and disorganized through landfall Tuesday.
UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM GRACE… After we deal with Fred early this week, our focus will immediately shift to Tropical Storm Grace, the system currently located very near the northern part of the Lesser Antilles. Grace is expected to move west-northwest rapidly, similar to how Fred moved earlier this week. The center of Grace will likely move over the high terrain of Hispaniola Monday into Tuesday. We will see if the circulation survives the land interaction. If it does, the storm could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico as early as late Wednesday evening. No way to know this far out where Grace ultimately moves. Please stay tuned for updates over the next few days.
TAKE A DEEP BREATH & BUCKLE UP… As someone who still sometimes feels like I am living through a continuation of the 2020 hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane Season, I understand that tropical and hurricane anxiety is a real thing for many folks. I know seeking out the information can sometimes feel overwhelming. While this storm anxiety is a very real phenomenon, I would encourage you to check in at least once a day over the next few days. Info can and will change rapidly, thus it is important to stay ahead of the latest developments. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app with more updates on Facebook each day as well.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another highly detailed update posted later this evening. See you then!
