LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO FRED… Fred will likely be a tropical storm as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Right now, Fred remains quite anemic and weak, located near the western part of Cuba. Locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida, our forecast on Monday will depend largely on where the center of Fred ultimately moves. If the center of circulation makes landfall as is currently expected in northwest Florida, the eastern side of our local area would have rain and impacts from Fred while the western half of our region has little to no impact from the storm. If more forecast changes happen today and we see that Fred’s projected path shifts even farther west, that may mean that even more of our local area would have more in the way of impacts on Monday, specifically higher rain chances and a slightly higher tornado risk, potentially. A few Saturday morning forecast notes are below.
LATEST CONE OF UNCERTAINTY SQUARELY IN OUR AREA… The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 7AM CDT Saturday, August 14 has the cone of uncertainty for a landfall point extending from Bay St. Louis, MS on the west to Panama City, FL on the east. NHC is currently forecasting a landfall point near Pensacola likely on Monday evening. As we have seen over the last 24 hours, the cone of uncertainty continues to change based on new model guidance. More changes may be possible in the hours ahead.
IMPACTS FROM FRED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER… A high likelihood exists that Fred will be a lopsided, sheared storm on Monday into Tuesday with most (if not all) of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity located on the eastern side of the storm. Look at this situation like having one half or one side of a circle with the circle moving north. Locations to the east of the center point of the circle could have heavy rain, gusty winds (especially near the immediate beach zones), and perhaps even a few tornadoes. Coastal flooding and minor storm surge will also be potential issues along and east of this center point. The challenge in forecasting Fred up until landfall will be exactly where this center point comes onshore. Right now, the latest path from NHC shows a likely landfall point in northwest Florida.
FRED – TIMING OF IMPACTS… The main impacts from Fred locally will happen from 11AM Monday to 11AM Tuesday. That is the 24 hour window when the storm will be moving directly over our local area. Outer rain bands of Fred may begin across coastal areas of northwest Florida as early as Sunday evening. Rain will increase in coverage throughout the day on Monday, mainly in areas along and east of the center of circulation. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Tuesday. A tornado risk may set up along and east of the center of Fred Monday into Tuesday.
MORE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE… We’ve seen some significant westward adjustments to the forecast track of Fred over the last 24 hours. More forecast changes will be possible over the next 24 hours until a low-level center of the storm becomes a bit more defined. Model guidance struggles immensely when a “center fix” of the storm is difficult to ascertain, thus why we have seen such a change in the track guidance over the last 24 hours. Please check back in for updates as we continue to get more data concerning this storm. We’ve come a LONG way in weather forecasting over the last 50-70 years, but clearly there is much work to be done to make hurricane forecasting even better and more refined.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE IN THE ATLANTIC… In addition to Fred, we’re also tracking a separate, developing storm located in the Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Grace. Tropical Depression 7 strengthened to Tropical Storm Grace earlier this morning. Grace will continue to move west toward the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Grace is expected to take a similar path to what happened with Fred.
SHOULD I CANCEL MY VACATION TO THE BEACH?… I have had several questions from folks that are coming down to our local beaches from northern states in the days ahead asking whether or not they should cancel their trip. I cannot provide a specific answer to this question as I don’t know your specific beach expectations. If you’re looking for a completely sunny week with no chance of rain, you probably wouldn’t be coming to a Gulf Coast beach this time of year as we have a rain chance just about every day. The fact is most of the time on most of the days in summer, we have plenty of sunshine. Pop-up storms are a daily part of life this time of year, however. Parts of our local area, especially near the northwest Florida beaches, may have increased rain chances on Monday, but Fred should be exiting the area Tuesday with no more imminent tropical issues in the following days.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another detailed update later today. Have a nice Saturday morning!
