FRED LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN OUR LOCAL AREA MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY… Tropical storm conditions will become possible across parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida on Monday into Tuesday as Fred (currently a remnant area of low pressure, but expected to be a tropical storm upon landfall) moves north. Fred remains weak in the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening. The system does not have a closed, low-level center of circulation, meaning it cannot currently be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm. The system is expected to strengthen in the hours ahead. Fred will likely regain tropical storm status tomorrow or early Monday before moving ashore in south Alabama or northwest Florida some time late Monday or early Tuesday. Join me in this special live video update as we look at potential impacts.
UPDATING TIMING OF IMPACTS – FRED… The main impacts from Fred locally will happen from 2PM Monday to 2PM Tuesday. That is the 24 hour window when the storm will be moving directly over our local area. Outer rain bands of Fred may begin across coastal areas of northwest Florida as early as Monday in the early morning hours. Rain will increase in coverage throughout the day on Monday, mainly in areas along and east of the center of circulation. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday into Tuesday. A tornado risk may set up along and east of the center of Fred Monday into Tuesday.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING… 3 to 7 inches of rainfall will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest chance of seeing 5 to 7 inches of total rainfall from Fred in our specific local area will happen across northwest Florida in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. These are the local counties where flash flooding is the most likely to happen early this week. In addition, parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties could have upwards of 5 to 7 inches of rain, depending on the exact future track of Fred.
TORNADO RISK LOCALLY… I expect a limited risk of a few tornadoes to set up across much of our area, specifically in areas along and east of the center of Fred and where the center comes onshore. Most tornadoes that happen in tropical storms and hurricanes are brief, short-lived, and usually do not cause long paths of damage. The EF2, significant tornado that struck East Brewton, Brewton, Kirkland, and Castleberry a few weeks ago on June 19 during Tropical Storm Claudette was certainly an anomaly, but proof that significant tornadoes can and sometimes do happen in tropical situations. We encourage everyone across our local area to have a way to hear tornado warnings Monday into Tuesday. As always, if we have tornado warnings, we will go into uninterrupted live video coverage to bring you the latest information.
GUST WINDS NEAR COAST… Vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will not have to contend with a widespread, damaging wind event during the passage of Fred most likely. I expect the greater wind gusts (40-50 mph) to happen near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wind gusts of 20-40 mph may be possible inland at times.
MINOR STORM SURGE POSSIBLE… 1 to 3 feet of storm surge may be possible at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches with some minor storm surge also being possible in the local bays and inlets.
RIP CURRENTS LIKELY… The number one weather-related killer along the Gulf Coast has consistently been rip currents since 1996. Please stay out of the rough waters of the Gulf. Far too many people get into bad situations surfing and by seeking a thrill. I expect red flags and double red flags will be flying at many beach locations early next week.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE IN THE ATLANTIC… In addition to Fred, we’re also tracking a separate, developing storm located in the Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Grace. Tropical Depression 7 strengthened to Tropical Storm Grace earlier this morning. Grace will continue to move west toward the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Grace is expected to take a similar path to what happened with Fred. We will begin to get a better handle of where Grace will ultimately end up over the next few days.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have more updates posted over the next several hours in the RedZone Weather app. My next detailed update will be posted at 7:15AM on Sunday. Have a nice Saturday evening!
