FRED RESTRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS; WATCH & WARNING ISSUED LOCALLY… Fred has reorganized and is now once again a tropical storm centered over the east-central Gulf of Mexico as of midday Sunday. Several local counties are now under a Tropical Storm Watch and Tropical Storm Warning ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Fred tomorrow (Monday) evening. The projected path of Fred has shifted back to the east slightly (by about 20-40 miles). This change means that part of our area will be on the volatile eastern side of the storm as it comes ashore while the other side of our region will be on the western side where impacts will largely be nonexistent. Right now, Fred has maximum winds of 40 mph and is centered about 335 miles south-southeast of Pensacola. Fred is moving north-northwest at 12 mph. A midday updated look at the situation is below.
FRED STRENGTHENING; LIKELY TO BE A 50 MPH TROPICAL STORM AT LANDFALL… Tropical Storm Fred is growing more organized today over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. Maximum winds are now at 40 mph. More, gradual strengthening is expected over the next 24-36 hours before landfall. The cone of uncertainty has been shifted to the east to account for the new low-level center of circulation forming farther northeast. The cone of uncertainty now exists from Orange Beach, AL on the west to Mexico Beach, FL on the east with a most likely landfall point near Destin, FL.
MOST IMPACTS TO BE ON EASTERN SIDE OF STORM… One thing that has not changed over the last few days is the expectation that Tropical Storm Fred will have the main impacts along and EAST of the center of circulation. This is because Fred exists in an environment where upper-level winds (or shear) continue to knock the system over, or make it more lopsided. This means that most of the impacts with Fred will be on the eastern side of the circulation.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NAVARRE TO THE EAST… A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Navarre, FL to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line near Tallahassee. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph may be possible in these zones. Along the coast, this Tropical Storm Warning includes Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Eglin AFB, Niceville, Destin, Miramar Beach, Sandestin, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Alys Beach, Laguna Beach, Panama City Beach, Tyndall AFB, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, Indian Pass, Apalachicola, Eastpoint, Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, and St. Marks.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF OKALOOSA, WALTON COUNTIES, POINTS EAST… In addition to the coastal locales involved in the Tropical Storm Warning, all parts of Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Calhoun, Jackson, Washington (FL), and Holmes counties are involved in the Tropical Storm Warning. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph may be possible in these zones. This includes places like Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, DeFuniak Springs, Mossy Head, Marianna, Bonifay, Panama City, Lynn Haven, Parker, Springfield, Wewahitchka, Blountstown, and surrounding areas in the Florida Panhandle region.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR 4 COUNTIES LOCALLY… All parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties are now involved in a Tropical Storm Watch. This Tropical Storm Watch is in effect due to the potential for wind gusts of 30-40 mph. This includes places like Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Warrington, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Milton, Pace, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Damascus, Bradley, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Red Level, Carolina, Straughn, Onycha, Rose Hill, and surrounding areas. We note that southeast Alabama is involved in a Tropical Storm Watch as well, including all parts of Houston, Geneva, Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties.
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I will have multiple, additional detailed updates posted later today here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Sunday afternoon!
