NEW TROPICAL STORM MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK… There is an increasing chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Caribbean Sea later this week or this weekend. Right now, the National Hurricane Center indicates a 50% probability of tropical storm formation in the Caribbean Sea, likely east of Nicaragua and southwest of Jamaica. Early model guidance has been fairly consistent in showing this system emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico in about one week from now. As we approach the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, I expect tropical activity to ramp up. I would encourage everyone to pay careful attention to our tropical coverage this week, through September, and into early October, which historically are the most active “hurricane weeks” of the year. A few more Monday evening forecast notes are below.
EARLY MODEL TRENDS CONCERNING FOR WESTERN GULF… While forecast changes are expected in the days ahead as this tropical system continues to develop, it is notable that early model guidance has been fairly fixated on potential issues for parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, specifically Texas, northern Mexico, and even Louisiana due to this system. Keep in mind that large forecast changes are LIKELY as tropical systems develop. I will have updates posted in the RedZone Weather app over the next several days with the very latest info. Be sure to join me each weekday morning at 7:15AM for our morning forecast video discussion.
OTHER SYSTEMS IN ATLANTIC BREWING… Two other areas of disturbed weather have developed today in the central Atlantic Ocean. These two systems are likely to take a more northwesterly track across the Atlantic and likely remain well away from the Lesser Antilles and North America for the foreseeable future. One of these systems is located about 700 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, while the other is a tropical wave located about 450 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. I suspect these systems will remain well to the east of the continental U.S. over the next week or so. There is a high chance, as of now, these systems won’t ever affect the United States, although it is too early to state that conclusively. I’ll keep watching trends over the next few days.
APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast video and long form text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!
