TROPICAL STORM IDA LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND… Ida continues to organize this evening as a tropical storm located in the western Caribbean Sea. One of the most concerning parameters ahead of this developing storm is the heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, directly along the projected path of Ida. This post is less about specifics and more about “why” we’re looking at a potentially dangerous setup as Ida develops over the next few days ahead of an expected landfall along the Gulf Coast on Sunday.
EMERGING RESEARCH POINTS TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION… Brandon Black, a meteorologist at our local National Weather Service office in Mobile, recently enlightened me to some research into the rapid intensification processes of tropical systems. The research found there is some correlation with the intensification rate of powerful hurricanes and sea surface temperatures in excess of 27 degrees Celsius (80.6°F). In this case, the part of the Gulf of Mexico where Ida will be moving has sea surface temperatures in excess of 86 degrees. As pointed out earlier today on Twitter by Dr. Kim Wood, who is a hurricane research scientist in Mississippi, there is a deep pocket (extending down below 40 meters below the surface of the Gulf) of very warm (86-88°) water in the specific area where Ida will be moving between Cuba and the Gulf Coast. This is the highlighted area of the Gulf in the attached graphic/map.
DEEPER HEAT CONTENT IN GULF; FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SETUP… Sea surface temperatures are extremely important in hurricane forecasting, but it is also helpful to know exactly how deep the heat content in the water column is before a storm moves over a given patch of ocean. The deeper the warm water is, the more likely a storm is to tap into it and intensify. This is only one part of the equation, however, because if a storm has plenty of warm water to work with, yet strong upper-level winds in the atmosphere (called shear), continually rip the system apart, the storm ultimately fails (which is what we want to happen!). In this particular situation, Ida has a favorable water column AND a favorable upper-level atmospheric setup ahead of the storm. Not a good combination!
RAPID INTENSIFICATION MEANS A STRONG HURRICANE IS LIKELY… Based on the information presented in the previous paragraphs, you can understand why I am highly concerned for our swath of the Gulf Coast, specifically in the areas near and to the east of where Ida makes landfall. What makes me even more concerned is that the upper-level wind environment over the top of the hurricane will be highly favorable for rapid intensification as well. Odds are increasing this evening that Ida could be a strong (category 3+) hurricane by Sunday as it takes aim at our region and areas just to our west in Louisiana and Mississippi.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE… If you are in Louisiana or southern Mississippi, you are in the direct path of what could be a major hurricane at landfall on Sunday. NOW is the time to prepare, make a plan, and get ready to execute that plan. Know where you would go if you have to evacuate. Obviously with the ongoing delta variant/COVID crisis, it makes planning even tougher. If you live in a low-lying area prone to storm surge or flooding, now is the time to start thinking about not IF you’re going to leave, but when. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will largely depend on exactly where the center of TD9/Ida makes landfall. Based on the current forecast from NHC, specific hazards locally will include the potential for tornadoes across our entire region, gusty winds near the immediate coast of Alabama and northwest Florida, storm surge and coastal flooding (particularly along the Alabama coast), high surf, rip currents, and the potential for heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding. The greater hurricane impacts will likely happen to our west across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, based on the current forecast. IF the projected path for TD9/Ida shifts a bit to the right/east, our area would have more significant impacts.
BETTER TO BE PREPARED THAN NOT… While it does appear, at the moment, that the core impacts of Ida will pass a bit to our west, the timetable on this situation has me very concerned. Why? Because if forecast changes happen in the next day or so, that would leave almost no time to prepare for a landfalling hurricane in our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. NOW is the time to brush up on your hurricane preparedness plan.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed video update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Please be sure to join me throughout the day tomorrow for the latest information on this developing storm. Have a nice Thursday evening!
