HURRICANE IDA IS NOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF; INTENSIFICATION LIKELY TODAY… Hurricane Ida continues to rapidly move northwest across the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico on this Saturday morning. Ida emerged from western Cuba last night and is now moving into an environment that is highly favorable for rapid intensification. Since last night, there have been no major changes to the forecast logic. Ida will almost certainly make landfall as a strong hurricane in Louisiana tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon or evening. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will include the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds (especially near the Alabama coast), tornadoes, and flash flooding. Dangerous coastal hazards, including rip currents and high waves, have already started at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Please do not get in the Gulf today or in the days ahead! A few more Saturday morning forecast notes are below.
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT – HURRICANE IDA… Our local impacts discussion has not changed much at all since last night. The main impacts from Hurricane Ida in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Please remember that tornadoes and other impacts will be possible in our local area long after the center of the hurricane makes landfall in Louisiana as Ida is expected to turn north and ultimately northeast after landfall. Local impacts are detailed below:
– Tornadoes will be possible across the region Sunday evening, Sunday night, and into Monday. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings!
– Heavy rain at times that could lead to flash flooding. The greatest chance of flash flooding will happen near the Alabama coast and over west Alabama.
– Wind gusts of 30-40 mph near the Alabama coast with breezy conditions (15-35 mph wind gusts) inland and across northwest Florida.
– Storm surge in Mobile Bay is currently expected to be in the 2-4 feet range. Storm surge near Dauphin Island and the Mississippi Sound of 4-7 feet may be possible. The more dangerous 7+ feet storm surge will likely happen to our west across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.
– All coastal hazards, including dangerous rip currents, high waves, and even minor coastal flooding will be possible locally. One man passed away last evening due to rip currents near Opal Beach, FL near Navarre. Please stay out of the Gulf today and in the days ahead.
UPDATED: COULD THE PROJECTED PATH FOR IDA SHIFT EAST? Confidence continues to increase this morning that the core impacts associated with Hurricane Ida will happen to our southwest across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. I understand many folks have anxiety about hurricanes, and rightfully so after our experiences with Sally and Zeta just last year. While impacts are expected from Hurricane Ida in our local area, the more extreme impacts are *extremely likely* to remain to our southwest. Unfortunately, this means that our friends in eastern Louisiana will take the brunt of this potentially devastating storm.
COULD IDA BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE? Yes, but that is a technicality and something we all shouldn’t get too hung up on. Why? Because whether a hurricane is a high-end, cat. 3, cat. 4, or cat. 5 storm really doesn’t make that much difference. ALL of those categories produce life-threatening IMPACTS. The storm surge and wind damage in parts of eastern Louisiana could potentially be catastrophic, the likes of which have not been seen in that part of Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina or prior. Please don’t get so fixated on the category that you forget about the key points: This is a major, potentially catastrophic storm for Eastern Louisiana, regardless of the specific category at landfall.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY TODAY… Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon into this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These areas of rain and thunderstorms are not directly associated with Ida. These storms are the classic, pop-up storms that develop just about everyday around our region in the summertime. Loud thunder, cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rain will be possible in the storms today. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have more detailed updates posted a bit later on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. Please check back in throughout the day and into tomorrow as we continue to track Hurricane Ida. Have a great Saturday!
