TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY; HURRICANE IDA IMPACTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA… Tornadoes, heavy rain, and flash flooding will be possible in the overnight hours, extending into Monday, across our entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. The greatest chance of having tornadoes in the overnight hours will continue to be in parts of Mobile, Washington, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. I can’t rule out tornadoes happening elsewhere across the region, but those five counties clearly have the higher tornado risk overnight. Please have a way to get urgent tornado warnings overnight. Our RedZone Weather app is one tool in your tornado warning toolbox, but you need something like a NOAA Weather Radio or Emergency Alerts in your phone settings set up to be loud and be able to wake you up if your location goes under a tornado warning. If we have tornado warnings overnight, be sure to join me in live video coverage on Facebook Live. A few more Sunday late evening forecast notes are below.
TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 6AM… A Tornado Watch continues for much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida until 6AM, meaning the atmosphere is favorable for the development of tornadoes. All parts of the following counties are involved in the Tornado Watch: Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia (FL). The tornado risk is slightly lower in Butler and Covington counties (not zero, but it is lower) and across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY… Heavy rain will be possible at times. We have many communities under Flash Flood Warnings this evening, and we could have more rain overnight that will lead to more Flash Flood Warnings being issued by tomorrow morning. We note that NWS Mobile has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to now include ALL of our local counties, including Butler, Covington, and Okaloosa counties that were not involved previously. An additional 3 to 5 inches of rainfall may be possible in many spots across the region overnight into Monday.
CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS… Hurricane Ida, now almost 10 hours after the initial landfall in Louisiana, remains a destructive hurricane with winds of 110 mph. Ida has slowed down a bit, now moving north-northwest at 9 mph. The center of Ida is located about 30 miles WNW of New Orleans or about 40 miles ESE of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Minimum central pressure has come up to 950 millibars, up from the minimum of 930 mb when Ida was at peak intensity earlier.
QUIET FOR INLAND AREAS SO FAR; IMPACTS TO INCREASE… Numerous tornado warnings and flash flood warnings happened earlier today near the coast with not much in the way of impacts farther inland, so far. This will begin to change in the hours ahead. Heavy rain will become possible farther inland as the center of Ida continues to lift north. Flash flooding will become a concern, even in areas farther inland, where heavy rain and storms train over the same areas.
MAJOR WIND IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY… Unlike Tropical Storm Fred a few weeks ago when our area had “cone whiplash” with the cone of uncertainty being highly uncertain and moving around, the forecast for Hurricane Ida thus far has been essentially spot on. It is remarkable to see just how consistent the track guidance has been from the National Hurricane Center concerning Ida. Now that Ida is onshore and moving north and will cross into Mississippi overnight, we can conclusively state without any doubt that high wind impacts simply will not happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Breezy conditions, yes. Gusty winds near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, yes. But damaging, widespread wind issues, conclusively NO.
SURGE & MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE… NWS Mobile is noting that ongoing storm surge and minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible overnight, into Monday, and perhaps even into Tuesday morning as the center of Hurricane Ida continues to move farther inland. If your route to work tomorrow involves being near Mobile Bay, check road conditions and make sure there isn’t coastal flooding that has flared up. Major storm surge issues are not expected locally.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have more updates posted in the overnight hours in the RedZone Weather app. If we have tornado warnings, be sure to join me on Facebook Live for the very latest information. Have a good Sunday evening and please stay safe!
