MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT AHEAD FOR OUR LOCAL AREA; HURRICANE NICHOLAS NEAR TEXAS COAST… Heavy rain will be possible at times today in our local area, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours as the weakening circulation of Hurricane Nicholas begins to usher in high amounts of Gulf moisture. While rain chances will be greater on Wednesday and Thursday, I am expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across our area today. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s. Flash flooding will become a concern tomorrow into Thursday, especially where heavy rain trains over the same areas. The greatest chance of flash flooding will happen in west Alabama, in parts of Clarke, Choctaw, Mobile, and Washington counties. A few more Tuesday morning forecast details are below.
NICHOLAS MADE LANDFALL LAST NIGHT IN TEXAS… Nicholas strengthened to category 1 hurricane status late last night. The center of Nicholas is near the coast of Texas this morning. The storm made landfall last night near Lake Jackson. Nicholas is expected to continue to gradually move northeast today. The storm will continue to weaken and likely become a tropical depression later today. Additional heavy rainfall is likely at times today across Louisiana. There is a low-end risk of a few tornadoes today across parts of eastern Texas and much of Louisiana.
HIGH RAIN CHANCES & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LOCALLY… Wednesday and Thursday will feature high (>70%) rain chances each day with a chance of flash flooding issues across west Alabama. Generally, areas farther to the west in our local area will have the highest risk of flash flooding issues through Friday. This means that Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Mobile, and Baldwin counties have the higher risk of experiencing flash flooding. Rain amounts will be in the 2-4″ range in these counties with lesser rain amounts farther to the east.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS… In addition to Tropical Storm Nicholas, the National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level low pressure area situated north of the Turks & Caicos islands or just northeast of The Bahamas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean. NHC gives this system a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm as the system moves north. Direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected because of this system.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR WEST AFRICA… There is a high (80%) chance of a tropical storm forming in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean near the western coast of Africa over the next few days. From NHC: “A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.”
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See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!