RAIN & STORMS LIKELY LATER TODAY; LOW-END RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS INLAND… Rain and thunderstorms will become likely later today across the local area as a cold front approaches from the north. A few of the thunderstorms that happen in the afternoon or early evening hours have a brief window to become strong, particularly in areas along and west of Interstate 65 in inland areas of southwest Alabama. While the overall tornado risk remains quite low, the main concern today in any storms that can become stronger will be damaging wind gusts. I will have radar updates posted later today, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app. As always, IF (by chance) tornado warnings are needed locally, we will go into nonstop coverage on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app. More Monday morning forecast details are below.
TIMING – RAIN & STORMS TODAY… A few showers may happen later this morning in advance of the heavier rain slated to arrive this afternoon into this evening. These showers are most likely to develop near the northwest Florida beaches and move eastward. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this evening as a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms move south across our area. The main time frame for thunderstorms locally will be from Noon to 7PM. The line of storms developing to our north will gradually spread to the south throughout the early evening hours. This line of storms is expected to weaken as it crosses our region, thus IF any severe weather issues happen in our local area, the time window for that is probably closer to Noon to 4PM.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include a sizable chunk of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Monday afternoon and evening. Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), northern Covington, Conecuh, Butler, Crenshaw, Monroe, Clarke, Wilcox, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties are involved in the low-end risk zone. We also note parts of northern Escambia (FL) County and far northwestern Santa Rosa County are included in the low-end risk zone. These arbitrary boundary lines are simply a general idea of where the “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” may set up.
MOST AREAS WILL SIMPLY HAVE RAIN AT TIMES DURING P.M. HOURS… Rain could be heavy at times briefly as a line of showers and storms moves across our area in the afternoon and evening hours. Most communities will simply have rain and perhaps some thunder as this line of storms moves through. On most (not all, but most) Level 1 (out of 5) risk days, our area usually does not have tornado warnings issued. Can tornadoes happen on a Level 1 risk day? Yes, absolutely. But generally speaking, with a setup like what we are looking at today, tornadoes are more of the anomaly than the trend. Most spots will simply have some rain and general storms.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY… No formal severe weather risk exists on Tuesday, but a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day. Tuesday will likely not be an “all day washout,” but scattered storms will be possible at times. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s.
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… Rain and storms will become more numerous on Wednesday. There is a chance a low-end severe weather risk zone may need to be introduced for parts of our area as there will be an overlap of instability and at least some amounts of atmospheric shear. It is a bit too early to know specifics for Wednesday. Let’s get through the round of storms today and we will begin to focus on the midweek event.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK… Another round of storms in the Friday-Saturday time frame has a chance to be fairly significant for parts of the Deep South. It is far too early for any specifics but there have been some model runs that show a fairly robust setup for severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes, during the upcoming weekend. I will have more details about this in the days ahead.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video… I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. If, by chance, a tornado warning is needed for any part of our local area today, we will go into uninterrupted live coverage to bring you the very latest information. See redzoneweather.com/coverage for details about our coverage commitment.