LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Strong to severe thunderstorms will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including in parts of our local area, on Wednesday into early Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. A Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone is in place for for parts of central and north Alabama. This means that IF severe weather happens locally on Wednesday into Thursday, inland areas have a slightly higher risk. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. A brief tornado or two may be possible locally, although the tornado risk is fairly low. In addition to the risk of strong storms tomorrow, we also are looking ahead to Saturday into Sunday when another round of severe storms will be possible. A few more Tuesday evening forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING LOCALLY – WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY… Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday. One round of showers and storms may develop in the early morning (4-6AM) and move across the region through 10AM. These showers and storms will likely remain under severe limits. The more significant round of storms will happen in the evening and overnight hours, perhaps extending into Thursday morning. Keep in mind, this will be an event where there is a real chance storms simply do not fire up. There are questions as to just how much forcing will be available for storms, despite plenty of instability, moisture, and shear present.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE FOR ALL LOCAL COMMUNITIES… The Storm Prediction Center maintains ALL of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Wednesday into early Thursday. A Level 1 (out of 5) risk means that widespread severe weather is not expected, although a few strong to marginally severe storms may be possible. Any storms that become stronger will likely be highly isolated in nature. All parts of Covington, Butler, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties are included in this low-end risk zone on Wednesday into Thursday.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK ACROSS CENTRAL & NORTH ALABAMA… The greater (albeit still questionable) tornado and damaging wind risk later today will set up across central and northern parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Demopolis, Hoover, Aliceville, Jasper, Cullman, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Hamilton, Fayette, Boaz, Ft. Payne, and Talladega are a few of the places involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone today into tonight.
MAIN CONCERNS: GUSTY WINDS; A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE… The primary hazard in the stronger storms across the Deep South on Wednesday into early Thursday will likely be damaging wind gusts capable of knocking down a few trees. A few tornadoes may also be possible.
ANOTHER, SEPARATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… A more significant round of strong to severe storms will likely happen across parts of the Deep South on New Year’s Day (Saturday). The Storm Prediction Center has much of Alabama and Mississippi (including inland areas of southwest Alabama) in their Level 2 risk zone valid for Saturday into early Sunday. Just like with this event on Wednesday, it appears the greater dynamics of this system will likely pass a bit farther to our north, although we still may have a few strong to severe storms happen in our local area. Let’s get through the first risk zone tomorrow (Wednesday into early Thursday) and then we will start to focus on the weekend event.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed forecast video and text discussion will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. Be sure to join me in the video for the latest information. Have a great Tuesday evening!