RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY P.M. BUT NO SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP LOCALLY… Clouds will increase in coverage today ahead of higher rain chances Saturday evening into Saturday night as a strong upper-level low pressure area crosses the Deep South. While snow and mixed precipitation is NOT expected locally across the southern half of Alabama or northwest Florida, locales in the northern half of Alabama could have wintry precipitation Saturday evening into Saturday night. What part of our area could have are a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms on Saturday evening, specifically in parts of northwest Florida. Cloudy, cold conditions will happen on Sunday ahead of much nicer weather early next week. A few more Friday morning forecast notes are below.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT… Mostly sunny skies will transition to mostly cloudy skies by the end of the day on this Friday. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-60s. Rain is not expected today, but we will be looking ahead to Saturday when quite a bit of rain is likely, particularly in the P.M. hours.
SHOWERS LIKELY AT TIMES SATURDAY EVENING… Rain will become likely Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, as an upper-level low pressure center approaches from the northwest. It should be emphasized that snow and mixed precipitation is currently NOT in the forecast for any part of south Alabama or northwest Florida. Confidence is quite high that any wintry precipitation issues will happen well to our north and east. A few thunderstorms may be possible across the local area Saturday, although that idea is far from certain as it remains to be seen just how much atmospheric instability exists in the afternoon and evening hours.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK P.M. SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center includes parts of northwest Florida in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Saturday P.M. into early Sunday A.M. There will be plenty of shear and plenty of dynamic forcing to support thunderstorms that could become strong on Saturday, however, the big question mark remains just how much surface-based instability develops ahead of the advancing cold front. The reality is we simply do not know the answer to that questions. Some models show basically zero instability while others show sufficient values to support a few stronger storms. This is a conditional risk of severe weather, meaning there is a significant chance no severe storms will happen. On the flip side, some storms could become strong in some scenarios. Most communities will simply have a cold rain Saturday night.
CLOUDY, COLD SUNDAY EXPECTED… Clouds wrapping around the counterclockwise circulation of the large upper low will continue to stream into our region on Sunday, meaning much of the day will be cloudy and quite cold. Temperatures will likely be held in the 40s on Sunday.
SUNSHINE RETURNS MONDAY & TUESDAY… Sunny skies will return Monday and extend into Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-50s each day with overnight lows near 30. There is a chance some communities may briefly dip into the upper-20s Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!