SEVERE WEATHER & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY… An active weather day is ahead later this week, specifically on Thursday when tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding will be possible across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for much of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee where the overall tornado risk will likely be maximized. We note that a big chunk of our local area is involved in this Level 2 risk zone, specifically in areas along, north, and west of Interstate 65. While it remains a bit too early to resolve specific details of what is likely to happen in your hometown, the odds of severe weather will likely be highest in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday.
TORNADO RISK LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED INLAND… Locally, it appears the tornado and damaging wind risk will be maximized in parts of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties. These counties will be in the zone locally where the greater combination of severe weather ingredients happen (surface-based instability, wind shear, etc.). The severe weather risk will likely end up being a bit lower in coastal Alabama, northwest Florida, and south-central Alabama (Covington, Butler counties). Keep in mind that a “lower risk” does not equate to “zero risk.” This means that storms will likely be gradually weakening while crossing our local area.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS… 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected areawide with this passing weather system. There may be a few locales that have isolated higher amounts (3-5″ of rainfall) if storms train over the same areas. If you remember just a few weeks ago, this very issue heavily affected parts of Monroe County, Alabama. Upwards of 9 inches of total rainfall fell in approximately 8 hours near places like Monroeville and Excel. While it is impossible to know where rain bands like this will set up, an event similar to this could happen on Thursday. Please be aware of the potential for isolated flash flooding on Thursday into Thursday night.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a full forecast video and text discussion posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Hope you’ll join us for that. Have a great Monday evening!
