SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LOCALLY THURSDAY; WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY ALL DAY… Thursday could feature a few significant tornadoes across parts of northwest Alabama. There is a risk of a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding statewide and across all of northwest Florida on Thursday into Thursday night. While the overall severe weather risk will be maximized in areas to our north (detailed extensively below), a lower-end severe weather risk is in place for most of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storms will be most likely to happen in the evening hours, probably after 3PM in most cases. Rain may not start in your hometown until the late evening hours. As always, if tornado warnings are needed locally, we will provide uninterrupted video coverage on Facebook Live. Be sure to have a way to hear warnings tomorrow into tomorrow night. More Wednesday evening details are below.
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY… Well in advance of thunderstorms, pressure gradient winds (25-35 mph wind gusts) will be possible tomorrow throughout the day. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight hours after storms pass as well. NWS Mobile maintains a Wind Advisory for ALL local counties.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING… This has been adjusted a bit later compared to previous forecasts. 3PM Thursday to 3AM Friday is now the 12 hour window when severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. 6PM to Midnight is the 6 hour “core window” for severe weather locally. Rain will likely linger into Friday morning.
MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & GUSTY WINDS… A few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns across much of the Deep South on Thursday. While the risk of these hazards will be maximized in areas to our north and west, the entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the severe weather risk zones as defined by the Storm Prediction Center.
HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE… Localized areas of flash flooding may be possible across parts of Alabama, particularly farther inland, on Thursday. The flash flooding risk will be a bit lower across northwest Florida. Half of one inch to an inch of rain in total is the projected rainfall total in many communities across the local area.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR NORTH… The tornado risk will be maximized across parts of north and west Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and western Tennessee on Thursday. SPC notes that a few significant (EF2+) tornadoes may be possible in these areas. The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes: Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, Jasper, Double Springs, Cullman, Eutaw, Moundville, Northport, Greensboro, Demopolis, Livingston, Aliceville, Sulligent, Haleyville, Fayette, Russellville, and Hamilton. Jackson (MS), Meridian (MS), Tupelo, Columbus, Oxford, Starkville, Jackson (TN), Memphis (TN), and Nashville (TN) are also involved in this higher, Level 3 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… The only part of our local area involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight severe weather risk on Thursday involves parts of Clarke and Washington counties. Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Campbell, Fulton, Springfield, Sandflat, Zimco, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, St. Stephens, and Wagerville are the local communities involved in this Level 2 risk zone. Other Alabama places involved in the Level 2 risk zone include Birmingham, Camden, Sweet Water, Butler, Selma, Marion, Clanton, Centreville, Hoover, Homewood, Montevallo, Talladega, Leeds, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, Boaz, and Scottsboro.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA… The remainder of Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This zone is where a few severe storms may happen, but the overall risk is lower. The Level 1 risk zone includes Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Creola, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Wilmer, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Tillmans Corner, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Magnolia Springs, Elberta, Loxley, Elsanor, Bay Minette, Gateswood, Stockton, Stapleton, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Jay, Berrydale, Point Baker, Holt, Harold, Crestview, Milligan, Baker, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Damascus, Pineview, Monroeville, Uriah, Excel, Frisco City, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Keith, Vredenburgh, McWilliams, Evergreen, Owassa, Lyeffion, Repton, Range, Lenox, Castleberry, Brooklyn, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, McKenzie, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Gantt, River Falls, Red Level, Carolina, Libertyville, and Rose Hill. We also note that other Alabama communities are involved in the Level 1 risk zone: Montgomery, Troy, Auburn, Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Samson, Elba, Alexander City, Eufaula, and surrounding areas in east Alabama.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I hope you’ll join me then for the latest information. Have a nice Wednesday evening!
