REMNANTS OF HURRICANE AGATHA MAY DEVELOP INTO NEW TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center says there is now a 50% chance of the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forming in the southern Gulf or western Caribbean Sea in the days ahead. Hurricane Agatha made landfall near Puerto Angel, Mexico in the last few hours with max. winds in excess of 100 mph. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken in the hours ahead before moving northeast toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. A new, separate low-level circulation center may develop somewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean Sea associated with this system in the days ahead. That is when the system will become a tropical depression or tropical storm. The key headline for south Alabama and northwest Florida remains: Regardless if this system becomes a tropical storm in the Gulf, NO local impacts are expected at this time. To repeat, we are forecasting no local impacts from what could become Tropical Storm Alex in the days ahead. The system will remain to our south and east. Impacts WILL be possible in the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are but rather the Florida Peninsula in areas south of Jacksonville and Ocala).
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN GULF OR WESTERN CARIBBEAN… Here is the 8PM EDT Monday discussion from the National Hurricane Center: “A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week.”
LOCALLY, POP-UP STORMS THIS WEEK… We have entered into a fairly predictable weather pattern this week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. These pulse-type, pop-up storms will be capable of producing localized areas of heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Most of these storms develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Usually, these storms are below severe limits but occasionally, you can get a few storms that ramp up and produce severe winds (58+ mph) and large hail. High temperatures this week will consistently be around 90 degrees with morning lows in the upper-60s. Just know, outside of any hurricane or tropical activity (currently none in the local forecast), it is fairly difficult to get a pattern change in the summertime around here. This will probably be a rather consistent forecast for at least the next several weeks. We probably will have some days in the weeks ahead where temperatures rise to near the triple digit range as we approach the middle of summer.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next detailed forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Monday evening!