ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY; TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN GULF… Thunderstorms will develop across the region this afternoon into this evening. Not every community will have rain before the end of the day. Severe weather is not expected today in south Alabama or northwest Florida but there may be a few stronger storms this afternoon into this evening across parts of north Alabama and north Mississippi. We also continue to track the tropical disturbance currently situated near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico that now has a high chance of becoming a named tropical storm before approaching South Florida over the next few days. Your Thursday morning forecast notes are below.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of north Alabama and the northern half of Mississippi in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for today. The main concern in any stronger thunderstorms that develop in these areas will be damaging wind gusts and the potential for large hail. There is no defined tornado risk in the Deep South today. This low-end severe weather risk zone includes places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Huntsville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Gadsden, Jasper, Cullman, Russellville, Livingston, and Hamilton. South Alabama and northwest Florida are not involved in any severe weather risk zones today.
TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN GULF OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA… While NO local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from the developing tropical system located near the Yucatan Peninsula, the disturbance is expected to bring 5-8 inches of total rainfall to parts of the Florida Peninsula over the next few days. From NHC: “A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is forecast and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.”
SEPARATE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS… In addition to the tropical disturbance set to move across the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead, the National Hurricane Center flagged an area of disturbed weather east of The Bahamas in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean with a very low-end (10%) chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days as the system moves away from the United States. From NHC: “A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.”
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See all the details in your Thursday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!