HOT & HUMID WEDNESDAY; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT… Heat index values will be in the 100-110° range this afternoon into this evening as a hot, humid air mass remains in place across the region. Pop-up thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon ahead of the potential for an organized mass of heavy rain and thunderstorms that could be strong or severe later this evening. Just like what happened last night across much of the area, thunderstorms tonight will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds. The overall tornado risk today and tonight remains very, very low, if not zero in most spots. The Storm Prediction Center includes all of our local area in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today into this evening. That means that scattered severe storms will be possible. Not every community will have severe weather today or tonight. There is a good chance MOST communities won’t have severe weather in a setup like this. If storm damage happens near you, it’s a big deal. Please have a way to hear warnings later today and treat severe thunderstorm warnings seriously.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THIS EVENING… General, pop-up thunderstorms will be possible first today from 11AM to 6PM. These storms will be under severe limits in most cases. The severe weather risk this evening will be from 6PM to Midnight with the main window being from 8PM to 11PM. We encourage everyone to have a way to hear warnings on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While the overall tornado risk remains very low, this organized band of storms could produce straight line winds that could easily knock down a few trees across the region.
EAST TO WEST STORM MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT… Nearly always, we see organized thunderstorms (particularly in the spring, fall, and winter when storms are associated with passing mid-latitude cyclones or cold fronts) that move from west to east. Pop-up thunderstorms in the summertime are totally different and are pulse-type thunderstorms that are usually not associated with an organized weather system. “Once in a blue moon,” however, we will get a system like what we are forecasting this evening where an organized, potentially severe, complex of storms moves in from the east. These storms will likely develop over parts of Georgia in the late afternoon or early evening hours before arriving in our area after 6PM.
MAIN CONCERNS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & HAIL… The overall tornado risk with the severe weather setup remains very, very low. To emphasis, this is NOT a tornado threat day as much as it is a risk of damaging straight line wind gusts. The main concerns in the mesoscale convective system (MCS) slated to move from east to west this evening will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of a quarter. There is a real chance the leading edge of this complex of storms knocks down a few trees across the region this evening. Have a way to hear warnings and please heed the severe thunderstorm warnings that are issued.
VERY HOT TEMPS AHEAD… The thermometers may read 100 degrees by Friday or Saturday as a large ridge of high pressure continues to build in to our region. Heat index values may be in the 110-115° range on both Friday AND Saturday. These are unseasonably hot temperatures for mid-June, even by our sweltering summer standards around here. This is something to be aware of if you are planning to be outside in the afternoon and evening hours later this week and into the weekend.
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… After we get through the potential mesoscale convective system (MCS) cluster of storms tonight, it looks like the classic pop-up thunderstorms of summer will rule the forecast tomorrow (Thursday), Friday, and Saturday. Instead of an organized cluster of thunderstorms, these storms will develop quickly and fade away just as quick in most cases. Heavy rain, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Wednesday!