P.M. STORMS TODAY; TRACKING PTC #2 IN THE ATLANTIC… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible today and in the days ahead as a seasonal summertime weather pattern continues across the local area. Our attention in the tropics is now on Potential Tropical Cyclone #2, soon-to-be Tropical Storm Bonnie most likely. While severe weather remains unlikely, some of these pop-up storms may be loud at times. High temperatures on this Tuesday will be in the low- to mid-90s. PTC #2 is located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. In addition, we’re tracking an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf that has a low-end chance of becoming a tropical storm before moving into Texas later this week.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #2 APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES… Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 formed yesterday evening in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. PTC #2 has prompted a Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago and the island of Grenada. The system is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum winds are already at 40 mph, meaning at this point we’re simply waiting on a low-level center of circulation to form so the system can officially be designated as a tropical storm. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows PTC #2/Bonnie continuing a consistent westward movement toward Central America. The system may be a hurricane on approach to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras in 4-5 days. No direct local impacts are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this developing system.
DISTURBANCE IN GULF REMAINS DISORGANIZED… There remains a 20% chance a new tropical storm may form in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Regardless of if formal development happens, local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected. From NHC: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.”
LOCALLY, MORE P.M. STORMS IN DAYS AHEAD… I see no reason to modify the ongoing forecast in any considerable way. South Alabama and northwest Florida will continue to have a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe weather is NOT in the forecast anytime soon, but some of these summertime pop-up thunderstorms will be “loud and proud” at times. Gusty winds will be possible in the strongest of the storms.
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See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!